Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz Will Not Recover for Months

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will not recover for several months at the earliest and, most likely, will return to no more than half of its prewar level. The main reason is the high mine threat.

This was told to the Financial Times by Takaya Soga, chief executive of the Japanese shipping company NYK Line, which operates a fleet of more than 900 vessels.

“The routes available for navigation are extremely limited—they are very narrow corridors. We are still very far from returning to the conditions that existed before the Strait of Hormuz was closed,” he said.

According to Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization, Iran laid about 80 mines along the main shipping routes. As a result, only two narrow corridors remain available: one near Larak Island off the Iranian coast, and the other close to Oman.

The type of mines laid is still unknown. If most of them are bottom mines, detecting and destroying them, experts say, will take significantly longer than in the case of simpler contact mines.

A maritime-security specialist explained that hitting such a mine would at the very least cause serious damage to a vessel. Modern devices are equipped with magnetic and other pressure sensors and detonate under the keel, causing the vessel to lose buoyancy instantly.

Despite the risks, Michael Aldwell, vice president for sea logistics at Kuehne+Nagel, estimates the probability of the route’s full restoration at more than 90%.

According to him, alternative delivery of goods to the region by truck is “absolutely unacceptable” because of the scale of shipments.

While full traffic has not yet resumed, the insurance company Allianz is assessing the losses: because of the blockage of the strait, more than 1,200 cargo ships carrying goods worth about $125 billion are idle.

Takaya Soga stressed that the logistics sector needs firm guarantees of commercial-shipping security from the United States and Iran. In addition, the risk remains that de-escalation could be disrupted by third parties, in particular Israel, he believes.

“What worries me is Israel. If Israel continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon despite this agreement, Iran may say the terms are being violated and move toward another closure. That is a very real possibility,” the head of NYK Line said.