Latvian Intelligence Warns Russia May Be Preparing Provocations Against Baltic States and Poland

Latvian intelligence has warned that Russia may be preparing provocations against the Baltic states and Poland in order to put pressure on NATO and force the alliance to reduce its support for Ukraine.

“We see signs that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland—not a conventional war, since Russia is not ready for that now, but hybrid attacks, such as missile and drone strikes or other actions intended to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have problems of your own,” Latvian intelligence officials said in comments to Fox News on June 22.

What worries intelligence officials most is the risk of a miscalculation by Vladimir Putin. According to Latvian services, the Russian president may be receiving distorted assessments from his own agencies, which could lead to “reckless and senseless decisions.”

Earlier, Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau released a report saying that Russia is preparing to file a lawsuit against the Baltic states at the UN International Court of Justice. Moscow, the bureau says, intends to accuse them of discriminating against Russians and the Russian-speaking population. Latvian intelligence believes that through such a legal campaign, Russia is trying to shape a narrative it can later use to justify actions against the Baltic states.

The bureau also recalled that in late May Putin signed a law giving him the right to use the armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad. The Federation Council had already granted the president such authority immediately before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, Latvian intelligence does not believe the country is currently facing the threat of a full-scale war.

“We are not currently afraid of a full-scale invasion. Even if the war in Ukraine ended today, Russia would need three to five years to rebuild sufficient military potential. What concerns us now are provocations—drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks,” intelligence officials said.

Earlier, Polish authorities said Russia is already waging a hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank: carrying out killings, launching drones, conducting cyberattacks, organizing attacks on critical infrastructure and using illegal migrants against the alliance’s countries.