With Donald Trump’s administration focused on the war with Iran, Europe is preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine and is placing ever less hope in a diplomatic settlement. As The New York Times reports, the negotiating process has effectively stalled, and neither side sees a clear path to victory.
The central problem is the absence of any mechanism to end the war. Without active pressure from the United States—which Washington is unwilling to apply—the prospect of an agreement remains extremely low. In Kyiv, the outcome of the conflict is increasingly seen as depending solely on the battlefield.
According to analyst James Sherr, Volodymyr Zelensky has “lost 80% of his illusions” about U.S. support. Contacts between Kyiv and Washington continue, but no полноценные negotiations involving Russia are under way—Moscow rejects a trilateral format and, European officials believe, never took the talks seriously in the first place.
Against this backdrop, the EU is stepping up support for Ukraine. The bloc has approved a €90 billion loan and adopted a new sanctions package. European countries hope that, over time, mounting pressure will force Moscow to reconsider its position.
Yet even within Europe, officials acknowledge that no clear strategy exists for a Ukrainian victory. In practice, the task has become one of keeping the country “in the game” until possible changes inside Russia.
At the same time, neither side currently feels an urgent need for an agreement. Russia continues to sustain heavy losses for limited territorial gains, while Ukraine remains resilient thanks to external support and its own capabilities. As a result, the war is taking on a protracted character, and the prospects for a ceasefire remain distant.