Will the War With Iran End—or Will the Truce Collapse Again

As the two-week ceasefire agreed by the United States and Iran nears its expiration, the central question remains whether the two sides can reach a deal that would end a war that has already claimed thousands of lives and triggered a global energy crunch.

The odds of such an outcome appear to have improved after Iran said it was prepared to open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping for the duration of a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon. Restrictions on traffic through the waterway have become the most acute point of friction between Washington and Tehran amid disruptions to global oil and gas supplies.

President Donald Trump has expressed optimism, saying the two sides have moved closer to an agreement to halt the fighting. Yet officials familiar with the discussions say that some leaders in Europe and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf doubt that a full peace settlement can be put in place quickly. They expect that resolving issues such as the future of Iran’s nuclear program could take months. Several serious obstacles still stand in the way of a durable and comprehensive agreement.

After the war began, Iran blocked access to this critical route, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass, sending energy prices sharply higher. At the same time, Tehran continued to move its own oil exports through Hormuz and allowed other vessels to pass only selectively—often after negotiations over safe transit and, according to reports, sometimes after demanding payments of as much as $2 million.

With daily traffic through the strait still severely constrained and talks in Pakistan ending without results, the United States imposed a blockade on vessels that had already called at Iranian ports or are headed there. The measure is intended to cut Iranian oil exports and intensify economic pressure on the regime in Tehran, with the aim of restoring the strait’s previous status as a zone of free and duty-free passage for all ships.

Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on April 17 that Hormuz was “fully open,” the terms of passage are still being set by Iran itself. Access appears to be tied to compliance with the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and only commercial vessels following a route approved by the Iranian military are allowed to cross the strait.

Tehran has repeatedly signaled that it intends to retain control over the strait over the longer term as well and is also working on legislation to impose transit fees. It is unlikely to relinquish this lever of influence over the waterway—and with it, over the global economy—without substantial concessions from the United States. Iran has already endured extended periods of sharply reduced oil exports, including during Trump’s first term, when Washington pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” through severe sanctions.

Trump has said the American blockade will remain in place until a broader deal is completed “100%.”

According to Trump, the talks in Pakistan failed because Iran refused to give up its nuclear program. The United States is seeking the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear capabilities—with the exception of the civilian power plant at Bushehr—in order to prevent the creation of an atomic bomb. Iran has long denied accusations that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, though some Western governments treat those assertions with skepticism. Tehran insists it has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

Trump dismissed suggestions that the talks might center on a temporary moratorium on uranium enrichment and claimed that Iran had agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. Axios, citing two American officials, reported that the United States is considering unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. Trump himself, however, has said that “no money in any form, under any circumstances, will be handed over.”

The last time the UN nuclear watchdog was able to verify the size of Iran’s uranium stockpile was before the US and Israeli strikes in June 2025. Inspectors then found that Iran had accumulated 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, and that if enriched further, that amount would be sufficient for roughly a dozen nuclear bombs. Where that stockpile is now and in what condition it remains is unknown.

The continuation of the conflict in Lebanon, where Israel is simultaneously waging war against the Iran-backed Hezbollah, is also jeopardizing US efforts to bring the fighting with Iran to an end.

Although Israel agreed with the United States to a two-week pause in attacks on Iran, it initially continued its strikes on Lebanon. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, who took part in the talks in Pakistan, said that “a ceasefire in Lebanon is as important as a ceasefire in Iran.”

In parallel, Washington was pursuing a separate diplomatic track in an attempt to lower tensions around Lebanon. On April 16, Trump said that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire and that American representatives would work with both sides in an effort to secure a lasting peace. Hezbollah did not take part in those talks, though it halted rocket fire into Israeli territory overnight.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces would remain in the so-called “security zone” in southern Lebanon for the entire duration of the truce. One of his principal demands in peace talks remains the disarmament of Hezbollah. The group itself rejects attempts to eliminate its military capacity, and the Lebanese government has previously failed to disarm it.

The United States is also seeking curbs on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Those missiles pose a conventional military threat that can reach beyond the Middle East and, should Tehran choose, could serve as a delivery system for a nuclear warhead.

The Trump administration is also demanding an end to weapons supplies and financing for regional armed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, which the United States regards as terrorist organizations. Iran, for its part, sees these forces as part of its “axis of resistance,” through which it projects influence across the Middle East.

Among Iran’s other conditions for a peace agreement are the lifting of sanctions—which the United States has previously indicated it might be willing to consider—as well as demands that Washington will probably regard as unacceptable, including compensation for wartime damage and the withdrawal of American combat forces from the region.

It cannot be ruled out that, under political and economic pressure, Trump may be prepared to step back from his maximalist demands and leave some key issues unresolved if that offers a way out of the war. The conflict has already pushed gasoline prices in the United States above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, adding to pressure on consumers ahead of the midterm elections later this year.