Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is now in its fourth year—and it is increasingly reshaping Europe’s security architecture. According to Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Moscow views the conflict as merely a springboard for further pressure on the West. Alarm is growing in both Berlin and Washington: the Kremlin may try to "probe" NATO allies where it believes they are most vulnerable—in the Baltic states. Kahl warns that testing Article 5 could take no more than the deployment of "little green men" to "protect" Russian-speaking minorities in Estonia or Latvia. Is the American president prepared to send troops to die for Tallinn, Riga, or Vilnius—and how should Europe respond to such a test?
In an interview with the Table Today podcast, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), described how Moscow is preparing to test NATO’s collective defense and drive the United States out of Europe.
"There are people in Moscow who no longer believe Article 5 works. And they would like to put it to the test," Kahl said. According to him, the Kremlin sees the war against Ukraine merely as "a step on the road westward," which could be followed by a hybrid assault on the Baltics or Poland. "No tank armies are needed for that. It would be enough to send ‘little green men’ into Estonia under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking minority," he added.
Kahl noted that such a scenario would be a test for Washington: would the American president be willing to send troops to die for Tallinn, Riga, or Vilnius? "We are quite certain—and we have intelligence to back this up—that Ukraine is only the first step. The NATO commitment to collective defense is going to be challenged," he said.
Despite Moscow’s doubts, BND’s counterparts in the United States, according to Kahl, "take the Russian threat just as seriously as we do—thankfully." The Americans are making it clear that Article 5 is not merely symbolic, but they also insist that Europe must boost its own defense budgets, since deterrence in the past was largely underwritten by the U.S. presence.
According to BND, the Kremlin’s strategic goal is "to roll NATO back to its late-1990s borders and push America out of Europe." To achieve that, Russia relies on low-intensity operations: disinformation, cyberattacks, sabotage, and provocations under the banner of "protecting compatriots."
Kahl expressed skepticism about negotiating with Moscow. The latest proposal, delivered in Istanbul, effectively amounted to Kyiv’s capitulation. He argued that there are "no signs of Putin being willing to change course," and that any "reasonable compromise" is interpreted by the Kremlin as a sign of weakness—just as NATO’s passivity was during the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
He also confirmed reports of his upcoming transition to a diplomatic role: after completing his term as head of the BND, Kahl is expected to become Germany’s ambassador to the Holy See. This move, he said, will not affect Berlin’s willingness to share intelligence with its partners, but will serve as "a natural extension of the dialogue on security and values."
Kahl’s central conclusion is straightforward: Russia will test the West wherever it senses weakness. Only a genuine European commitment to defense—from military capability to the political will to invoke Article 5—can deter that.
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