U.S. Declares a “War on Narco-Terrorists” and Prepares Covert Operations Against Venezuela

By Trump’s own count, in the nine months of his new presidency he has “resolved” eight conflicts—from Gaza to Southeast Asia. Now he appears ready to start another one—much closer to home.

Hundreds of ships and aircraft and thousands of troops have been deployed to the Caribbean. Trump announced the start of an “armed conflict” with drug cartels, which he labeled international terrorists. According to the administration, U.S. airstrikes destroyed at least seven vessels allegedly carrying narcotics from Venezuela; dozens of suspected smugglers were killed.

In addition, the president signed a classified “finding” authorizing the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela and publicly accused Nicolás Maduro of illegitimate reelection and leadership of a drug cartel.

“I authorized this for two reasons,” Trump said. “Venezuela was the worst offender in Biden’s ‘open borders’ policy—they emptied their ‘prisons, psychiatric hospitals, and asylums’ and sent people to the United States. The second reason is drugs. A massive amount is coming to us from Venezuela.”

When asked whether he had authorized a CIA operation to assassinate Maduro, Trump replied, “It would be ridiculous to comment. But I think Venezuela feels the heat.”

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly, responding to a request for clarification of the administration’s position, referred to the president’s public statements and added in an email: “These decisive strikes targeted known narcoterrorists bringing deadly poison to our shores. The president will continue to use every tool of American power to stop the flow of drugs and hold those responsible accountable.”

Trump made clear he is prepared to act on the ground: “We’ll stop them in Venezuela.” According to several sources familiar with internal discussions, the initial phase of a potential ground operation would be limited to targeted strikes on drug traffickers’ camps and clandestine airstrips rather than aimed at regime change.

Some experts believe that the deployment of forces and strikes on vessels are part of a psychological campaign intended to undermine the unity of Venezuela’s armed forces or pressure Maduro. Yet Trump himself has done little to dispel fears of a full-scale war.

Declaring a “war on narcoterrorists” and naming Maduro as a leader of one such group, the United States “effectively cannot back down while Maduro remains in power,” one informed interlocutor said. “If you have a mandate to destroy drug couriers at sea, you can also destroy the head of a cartel,” he added.

Meanwhile, experts note that the overwhelming majority of illegal drugs reaching the United States—including nearly all fentanyl—arrive not via the Caribbean but by the Pacific route or through Mexico. Venezuela mainly serves as a transshipment point for Colombian cocaine produced and trafficked by rebels from the National Liberation Army (ELN).

The Trump administration asserts that the Venezuelan organization Cartel de los Soles—designated a terrorist group and, in their view, led by Maduro—comprises senior military officers and regime officials who participate in the drug trade and receive a share of proceeds from smuggling.

“I don’t think we are close to introducing ground forces into Venezuela,” said Juan González, who served as senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs on the National Security Council during the Biden administration. “That does not preclude using U.S. assets to penetrate territory, but it is easier to strike ELN safe havens on the Colombian border than to enter Caracas.”

Although the details of the CIA’s directives remain classified, two sources said Trump’s document authorizes the agency to take aggressive action against the Venezuelan government and its affiliated narcotics networks. There is no explicit mention of overthrowing Maduro, but the language allows for steps that could lead to that outcome.

According to the same sources, the intelligence service has increased its presence in the region, sending additional personnel to the Caribbean and neighboring countries to collect human and electronic intelligence. The Pentagon has also redeployed special operations forces, including elite helicopter units.

“The United States is at a crossroads—Washington needs to decide what it wants to achieve,” said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council. “The president came to power promising to end endless wars but now finds himself defending perhaps America’s longest-running campaign—the war on drugs.”

For many observers, including members of Congress and regional analysts, it remains unclear whether the operation is part of a military strategy to combat drug trafficking, an attempt to topple Maduro, or an element of a broader U.S. policy shift toward Latin America.

“The situation will undoubtedly escalate if ground strikes begin—especially if they carry political overtones,” said Tom Shannon, who served as assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs and later as under secretary for political affairs under Obama and in the early months of Trump’s presidency.

“This is where the administration risks going too far,” he continued. “It’s not explaining to Americans what’s really happening. If it’s purely about fighting drugs—fine. But then why deploy such overwhelming military power? It all looks like a show of force—not in words, but in deeds, including the announcement of covert operations in Venezuela.”

Last week, Admiral Alvin Halsey resigned as head of U.S. Southern Command after serving less than a year of his three-year term. According to Shannon and others, his decision was linked to disagreements over operations in the Caribbean region. Critics argue that the strikes violate U.S. and international law and that the administration has failed to provide a convincing legal justification.

Neither Halsey nor Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explained the reasons for his departure. However, Shannon said, “It’s reasonable to assume that this was why he decided to end his career. ‘So this is how I’ll be remembered? War crimes?’”

In a broader context, the administration has announced its intention to refocus foreign policy from distant regions toward the Western Hemisphere. The forthcoming National Defense Strategy, which the Pentagon updates every four years, is expected to prioritize the defense of U.S. territory and neighboring countries. According to sources, these principles will also be reflected in the new National Security Strategy.

This shift has caused frustration within the military, where many see China’s growing power as the primary challenge. Some lawmakers and analysts doubt that the White House has a coherent regional strategy, viewing instead a series of disconnected decisions driven more by Trump’s personal preferences and alignment with the MAGA agenda than by a deliberate approach.

“U.S. policy toward the Americas right now looks like chaos,” said Democratic Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a longtime Latin America observer. “We’re conducting military operations in the Caribbean while simultaneously promising Argentina $20 billion if the elections go ‘the right way.’ Explain the logic in that.”

Argentina is preparing for parliamentary elections, and forecasts suggest that President Javier Milei’s party—the “anarcho-capitalist” MAGA supporter and Trump favorite—will lose some seats amid an economic downturn. During Milei’s visit to the White House, Trump promised that if he remains in power, Washington will provide Argentina with $20 billion to support the peso—and possibly the same amount again. “If he loses,” Trump added, hinting to voters that the outcome would decide the country’s economic fate, “we’re not going to waste our time.”

Paraguay, by contrast, has become an example of the “ideal partner.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio last summer called its president an “exceptional ally” after Asunción agreed to host some U.S. asylum seekers. Ecuador, which signaled its willingness to reopen a U.S. military base closed by the previous government, was promised a potential free trade agreement during Rubio’s visit in September.

At the same time, Trump threatened to impose heavy tariffs on Chilean copper—the country’s main export—despite an existing free-trade agreement and Chile’s trade deficit with the United States. He has already slapped Brazil with a 50-percent duty after the conviction of former president and ally Jair Bolsonaro for an attempted coup against the sitting leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Yet after a brief handshake with Lula at the U.N. session, Trump said they had “great chemistry” and promised a personal meeting.

Lula, Chilean president Gabriel Boric and Colombian leader Gustavo Petro are left-wing politicians whose terms are nearing their end. Last week Petro accused the United States of attacking a fishing vessel in Colombian waters, where a Colombian national died. In response, Trump announced a halt to all U.S. assistance to Bogotá—a country that has long been a key military and intelligence partner—and threatened “devastating” tariffs.

Having called Petro “a psycho” and “a drug-lord,” Trump wrote on social media that if Petro does not stop cocaine production, “the United States will do it for him—and it will not be pleasant.”

The reduction of military aid to Colombia, noted Juan González, jeopardizes a vital intelligence partnership just as the United States is expanding its military presence in the region. “This won’t hurt Petro,” he said. “On the contrary, it could strengthen him. Trump has essentially given him the chance to become a popular former president who stood up to the United States—and that’s exactly what Petro wants.”

Meanwhile, Venezuela’s authorities continue to persecute the opposition while moving troops toward the coast. According to Maduro, eight million people have already joined the civilian militias. Following reports that the CIA had been authorized to conduct covert operations, he declared that “the CIA organized every coup and every presidential assassination in Latin America.” Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, speaking on state television, added: “I don’t want to spread panic, but I must warn: we have to prepare. The irrationality with which American imperialism acts has nothing to do with normalcy.”

“For the first time, we’re seeing signs that they’re taking the threat seriously,” said Andrei Serbin Pont of the CRIES research center. “They understand that their conventional military capabilities wouldn’t withstand a confrontation with the United States.”

Even with backing from Russia, China, and Iran, Venezuela’s military remains technically outdated and lacks combat experience. “Venezuelan arms purchases have always been ideological—they were signals, not attempts at modernization,” said former army lieutenant colonel José Gustavo Arocha, now living in the United States. “The regime’s main strength lies not in weaponry but in asymmetric methods: intelligence, infiltration, bribery, and disinformation.”

Any Venezuelan military response, wrote former U.S. Army officer and military law expert Geoffrey Corn in War on the Rocks, “is unlikely to pose a serious obstacle to U.S. forces.” But “what began as a limited operation against a handful of alleged traffickers could quickly escalate into an interstate war, regime change, and all the familiar consequences for the United States—far more complicated than winning a battle.”

For now, Trump appears unconcerned by Caracas’s defensive preparations. Videos released by Venezuelan authorities show civilians—many of them elderly—training to repel an invasion. Trump reposted one of these videos on his Truth Social network, featuring a woman awkwardly running with a long gun in her hands.

“Top secret,” he captioned it. “We captured footage of the Venezuelan army’s training. A very serious threat!”