In late September, Congress failed to agree on a stopgap funding bill, and the U.S. federal government shut down. Democrats demanded the preservation of Obamacare subsidies, while Republicans refused to negotiate on that issue amid the crisis. Since then, talks have stalled, with both sides blaming each other for the deadlock.
The intense partisan clash that drove Washington into a shutdown has made the path out of the crisis difficult to discern.
Both Democrats and Republicans are digging in, publicly vowing not to yield. Democrats blocked a Republican-backed stopgap funding bill that would have kept the government running through November 21. They are demanding an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and new restrictions on the administration’s practice of withholding federal funds. Democrats argue the burden of finding a solution lies with Republicans, who control the White House and both chambers of Congress.
"They’re in charge. They have to convene negotiations. They haven’t done that," said Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). "The fact that they aren’t even present in the House of Representatives shows they’re not serious about this."
"Trump has to actually want to negotiate and make a deal," added Representative James Walkinshaw (D-Va.). "He wrote a book about making deals. He played a character on a TV show who taught people how to make deals. He hasn’t done that as president, but now he has the opportunity."
Republicans counter that their "clean" funding resolution is meant to buy time to negotiate a long-term compromise. But they categorically refuse to discuss Obamacare tax credits while the government remains shut down.
"We’re not going to negotiate while they’re holding the federal government hostage," said Senate Majority Leader John Thune on CNBC Tuesday morning. "Release the hostage, and we’ll start the conversation about how to sustain these insurance exchanges."
The intransigence of both parties leaves unresolved how long the shutdown will last and what it will take to break the deadlock. Republicans expect Democrats to yield once the consequences of the closure begin to be felt by ordinary Americans. One potential pressure point is military pay: if Congress fails to act by October 15, service members risk missing their next paycheck.
"As long as Senate Democrats don’t realize that this fight Chuck Schumer dragged them into won’t bring them a big victory, or until it becomes clear that it’s hurting the country, they will keep going," predicted Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.).
Democrats, for their part, believe their voters expect them to stand firm against Donald Trump—especially when it comes to preserving health care benefits that Republicans want to scale back. "If Republicans want Democrats at the table, they have to negotiate," said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). "This is a core issue, the reason we were elected."
Griffith noted that the current standoff "feels different" from past shutdowns. The record 35-day closure in late 2018 and early 2019 came when Trump demanded funding for a border wall with Mexico. The government reopened only after flight disruptions emerged, as unpaid air traffic controllers and TSA staff began calling in sick en masse. Earlier, in January 2018, a three-day shutdown was triggered when Democrats demanded protections for young undocumented immigrants known as "Dreamers." After a weekend of talks with Republicans, the government reopened, but the promised legislation for Dreamers never materialized.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries acknowledged on Tuesday that talks with Republicans had yet to begin but expressed hope that dialogue could open after both rival bills—Republican and Democratic—failed in the Senate that evening.
Some Democrats, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, said they could support a Republican "clean" resolution provided that the question of Obamacare subsidies is carried into the next stage of budget negotiations. But those are isolated voices: most in the party insist Trump and his allies cannot be trusted on health care or anything else. "We believe that when they say ‘later,’ it means ‘never,’" stressed Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer.
Still, the mere fact that Republican leaders broached the possibility of discussing an extension of subsidies—long a taboo for conservatives—sparked a sense that this issue could hold the key to reopening the government. "Republicans need to put something on the table regarding the ACA," said Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.). "They must come forward with a proposal when we return."
Some moderate Republicans signed onto an initiative from Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) to extend the health insurance tax credit for one year. But for many in the party, that remains unacceptable: the additional subsidies were introduced by Joe Biden in 2021 during the pandemic, and conservatives vehemently oppose them. Hostility to Obamacare is woven into the GOP’s DNA: the 2013 shutdown under Barack Obama, which lasted 16 days, also revolved around this program.
Even so, GOP leadership has signaled that compromise may be possible—if not immediately, then during negotiations before November 21 or by year’s end. On CNBC, John Thune said the party is "ready to discuss" tax credits outside the shutdown context: "Reforms are needed. There must be income limits. There should be no entirely free policies. Everyone must contribute their share."