The recognition of Palestine by three major Western democracies—the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia—has reshaped the parameters of the international debate over a Middle East settlement. Until now, such steps had mostly come from the Global South; this time, America’s and Israel’s closest allies have joined in.
For many states, it is a signal that the status quo preserved for decades no longer holds. The focus is shifting not only to the future of Palestinian statehood but also to whether international institutions can forge a unified stance amid Israel’s growing isolation and the hard line taken by Donald Trump’s administration.
On Monday, leaders and diplomats from more than 140 countries will gather in New York to advocate the creation of a Palestinian state and a peace settlement in Gaza. Yet the meeting will exclude representatives of Israel, the United States, and the Palestinian leadership itself—barred from entry by order of the Trump administration.
The wave of recognitions of Palestine, including from Washington’s and Tel Aviv’s closest allies, is set to dominate the UN General Assembly this week. Against this backdrop, President Trump stands almost alone among world leaders in backing Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister, who firmly rejects the prospect of Palestinian statehood, plans to head to Washington after the session to secure Trump’s approval for a hardline response. Among the most radical measures under discussion in Jerusalem are the annexation of large parts, or potentially the entirety, of the West Bank.
On Sunday, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia announced their recognition of Palestine, followed later by Portugal. This brought the number of states that have officially recognized Palestinian statehood to more than 150. On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to take the same step at a peace conference he is co-hosting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. At least five other countries also plan to follow suit.
During his first presidential term, Trump supported the idea of a two-state solution and even put forward his own peace plan. But after the October 7 attacks, he declared that “the situation has changed.” His current administration has taken perhaps the harshest anti-Palestinian stance in US history: Trump now uses the very word “Palestinian” as an insult. Yet he has not personally led the campaign against recognition, delegating that role to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio sent instructions to American diplomats to press other countries to refrain from recognizing Palestine and from attending the Franco-Saudi conference, but according to officials in Washington and European diplomats, he has achieved little success.
Israel’s position has been weakened by the protracted war in Gaza, strikes on seven countries after October 7, and the policies of Netanyahu’s far-right cabinet. As a result, the country now faces greater international isolation than ever before. The prime minister sharply criticized the leaders of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and France, accusing them of handing Hamas a “ridiculous prize.” Yet he intends to make final decisions only after consultations at the White House.
According to Israeli sources, Netanyahu is seeking a “green light” from Trump for annexation. Last week, during a meeting with Rubio in Jerusalem, he said he was considering various options, including the incorporation of the entire “Area C”—which would mean declaring 60% of the West Bank Israeli territory. American officials say Washington is not currently inclined to support such steps, warning they could undermine the Abraham Accords. Rubio indicated that the United States would prefer to focus on ending the war in Gaza, securing the release of hostages, and agreeing on a “day after” plan.
The Monday conference is expected to adopt a document on Gaza’s future: Hamas would be required to disarm and barred from participating in the sector’s administration. Despite Washington’s unprecedented step of revoking visas for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his delegation, an overwhelming majority of states voted to allow him to address the General Assembly by video.
Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech on the Gaza war on Tuesday morning, while Netanyahu’s address is set for Friday—where he is widely expected to face a cold reception. That same day, Trump will meet in New York with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey. Two Arab diplomats said the White House had already set the purpose of the meeting: the president wants to present the principles of an American peace plan. “We understand that Trump expects to secure our support and consent, and then move forward with this plan,” one Arab participant said.