U.S. intelligence assesses the situation on the front lines in Ukraine as favorable to Russia and proceeds from the assumption that Moscow intends to continue military operations until it achieves its stated objectives.
“Russia maintained an advantage in the war against Ukraine in 2025. Until an agreement is reached, Moscow will likely continue to wage a slow war of attrition until it achieves its objectives,” said U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, speaking before Congress.
Her agency has also concluded that the combat effectiveness of Russia’s armed forces now exceeds the level recorded prior to the start of the war in Ukraine.
According to Gabbard, Moscow retains the capacity to exert pressure on U.S. interests across multiple regions, using both military and non-military instruments. “Russia continues to possess the ability to selectively challenge U.S. interests around the world through both military and non-military means.
Russia fields advanced systems, including counterspace weapons, hypersonic missiles, and undersea capabilities designed to offset U.S. military advantages,” she noted.