U.S. intelligence agencies believe that the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran is unlikely to bring down the regime in Tehran. On the contrary, it may strengthen the authority of the country’s security apparatus and push the leadership toward an even harder line. That assessment was reported by The Washington Post, citing sources familiar with intelligence evaluations.
According to U.S. intelligence assessments, despite large-scale airstrikes and the elimination of parts of Iran’s leadership, the country’s political system has remained resilient. Power is increasingly concentrating around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—the security force that plays a central role in protecting the regime and exercising control over state institutions.
American analysts have warned that even a large-scale military campaign would not necessarily lead to a change of power. In their assessment, the country lacks a strong and unified opposition capable of quickly assuming control should the existing system of governance collapse.
As a result, the war could produce a paradoxical effect: a regime weakened by strikes may become more closed and more hardline, while the influence of the security apparatus—above all the IRGC—continues to grow.