President Trump and the Republican Party—long seen as more competent on economic issues—have found themselves trapped in the same dilemma that President Biden once faced: it is impossible to convince Americans that economic policy is working when they are paying 20% more for a cup of coffee.
Democratic victories in Tuesday’s elections—dubbed a “blue tsunami” in U.S. media—were partly a reaction to rising prices and the higher cost of living during the first year of Trump’s second term. The White House insists that the president’s stance on affordability has not changed, but its urgency has grown.
The Biden administration once tried to make the same case, without success. No matter how often politicians say inflation is under control, people only care about one thing—what they pay, and whether prices are higher than before.
Overall, the economy remains resilient: growth is steady, inflation has dropped sharply compared to earlier periods, and the labor market is still holding together. But public sentiment continues to sour. The same mood of discontent that cost Democrats the 2024 election has not disappeared.
Mass layoffs have reached their highest level in 22 years. Coffee prices are up 20% from 2024—when Trump, still a candidate, promised cheaper groceries—while hamburgers cost 15% more. According to recent polls, most Americans blame the president for higher prices, with many citing increased costs of food and electricity over the past year. Frustration is further fueled by tariff policies and the record government shutdown, now in its 38th day, which has deepened public dissatisfaction.
How the Economy Flipped the Traditional Voting Map
Exit polls by Fox News during the New Jersey gubernatorial race showed that voters who prioritized the economy backed Democrat Mikie Sherrill—a former prosecutor—over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and Trump ally. A similar trend appeared in CNN’s poll in Virginia: among those who rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” Democrat Abigail Spanberger outperformed Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, a former small-business owner, by more than 50 points. For the U.S., this is an unusual pattern—Republicans have traditionally dominated on economic issues.
After Tuesday’s defeats, Trump’s advisers stressed that the results came from “blue” states rather than swing states and blamed the candidates themselves—Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears—for lacking a clear and consistent economic message.
Trump also faces an image problem. While insisting that Americans are not struggling economically, the president has been touring the world, gilding the White House, and hosting “Great Gatsby”-style parties at Mar-a-Lago—drawing parallels to the excesses of the Gilded Age and the Roaring Twenties. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene put it bluntly: “The White House has become a revolving door for foreign leaders while Americans are, frankly, screaming in despair,” she told Axios, noting that her relationship with Trump had cooled considerably.
Adding to the criticism is the construction of a new $300 million ballroom at the White House following the demolition of the East Wing, as well as plans to erect a massive arch—all while social programs, including food assistance, continue to stall.
Trump recently boasted on Truth Social that the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner at Walmart had fallen—supposedly proof that his economic policies are working. The White House reposted the message on X, but it was quickly tagged with a Community Note pointing out that this year’s meal bundle includes 30% fewer items and that well-known brands have been replaced with store-label products.
Speaking the next day, Trump said: “Under Republicans, life becomes more affordable. The problem is, Republicans don’t talk about it. They need to start talking and use their heads.”
The administration maintains that the tangible benefits of its economic policy will become visible in the first quarter of 2026. A rebound following the end of the budget crisis could help. The latest consumer price index data showed a slight month-over-month decline—a weak but encouraging signal.
Presidential advisers note that Trump frequently speaks about the economy and affordability, both in public remarks and on social media. They say he remains focused on these issues, while acknowledging the difficulty of the moment. “Ultimately, the outcome of the midterms will determine the success of the administration’s economic policy and how that success is perceived by the public,” one adviser said. “If the economy is truly growing and people feel it, Democrats will face an uphill battle. But if growth exists without a sense of prosperity, it will create serious problems.”