Even if the United States and Iran manage to reach a peace agreement, gasoline prices in the US are unlikely to quickly return to the levels seen at the start of 2026. Analysts warn that the effects of the war and disruptions to oil supplies will continue to be felt for a long time.
The average price of regular gasoline in the United States stood at $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared with less than $3 before the conflict began, according to AAA data.
Some price relief could begin within days of a full reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. However, he says the broader recovery will take considerably longer.
According to De Haan’s forecast, prices could decline by roughly one-third of the wartime spike over the next one to three months. The next third of the decline, he says, could take another three to six months, while a return to prewar levels may not come until early or mid-2027.
Analysts attribute the slow recovery both to problems in global logistics and to the structure of the retail fuel market itself. Even after the conflict ends, it will take time to restore supply routes through the Middle East and bring oil production in Gulf states back to previous levels after output cuts caused by export disruptions.
Rob Smith of S&P Global Energy notes that even under a durable ceasefire scenario, restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels will take several months.
Rystad Energy has offered a similar assessment. The firm says that even a phased reopening of the strait within 30 days appears “optimistic,” with a meaningful recovery in supplies unlikely before June.
Another factor is the inertia of the retail market. Even when oil prices fall—and they have already begun to decline following reports of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran—gas stations continue selling fuel purchased at higher prices.
Analysts say this explains the “rockets and feathers” effect: gasoline prices rise quickly alongside oil prices but decline far more slowly even when crude prices drop sharply.
Questions also remain over how stable the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be in the future. In an article for Foreign Affairs, Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew argues that Iran, having demonstrated its ability to shut down the strait, will now be able to use that threat going forward.
“Iran’s military capabilities have been weakened, but not destroyed. Even limited efforts will be enough to discourage shippers from returning to previous routes,” Brew writes.
Among the possible solutions, he proposes expanding pipeline networks that bypass the Strait of Hormuz with support from US development finance institutions.
According to S&P Global Energy, gasoline prices in the United States are likely to decline gradually after the war ends, though they are unlikely to return to preconflict levels before the end of the year.