The war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran could deprive Middle Eastern countries of nearly $200 billion in economic growth—according to a new United Nations study.
According to estimates by the United Nations Development Programme, which analyzed the economic and social impact of the conflict on Arab states, their combined GDP losses could range from $120 billion to $194 billion. The report was published Tuesday morning.
The authors examined several possible scenarios to assess the impact of the conflict, which began on February 28, on the region. Even if the war ends relatively quickly, the fallout could still be substantial. “Even a short-lived military escalation in the Middle East could trigger deep and wide-ranging socio-economic consequences for Arab countries,” the report says.
The overall economic damage, the UN estimates, could push unemployment in the region up by as much as four percentage points—equivalent to the loss of about 3.6 million jobs—and increase the number of people living in poverty by roughly another 4 million.
“This crisis is sending alarming signals to countries across the region,” Abdullah Al Dardari, the UN assistant secretary-general and head of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Arab States, said in an official statement.
The heaviest losses are expected to fall on the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as the Levant—in both cases, GDP could contract by more than 5.2%.
The conflict, now in its second month, has already driven a sharp rise in global energy prices, adding to pressure on the world economy. A previous UN report noted that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up food and fertilizer prices—consequences that will hit poorer countries especially hard.