Ukraine Is Losing Pokrovsk

A video circulating on social media allegedly shows Russian troops entering Pokrovsk from the Donetsk direction on November 10. The footage depicts soldiers moving on foot and in various vehicles. The authenticity of the recording has not yet been verified.

Bild military analyst Julian Röpcke reported that Russian forces have advanced toward the northwestern, northeastern, and northern outskirts of Pokrovsk.

“Why does not a single geolocation in or around Pokrovsk indicate that any sort of Ukrainian counteroffensive is successfully taking place somewhere in the city area? And no. Hoisting a flag at a building that was never under Russian control is not a successful counteroffensive,” Röpcke wrote.

The fall of Pokrovsk, according to an officer from a motorized infantry brigade stationed there for over a year, is “a matter of days, two weeks at most,” he told Le Monde. In his view, the situation resulted from “command errors” that allowed Russian forces to encircle the city.

The officer noted that the city is now practically cut off: “For weeks there’s been no proper supply, and for several days now the city has been completely isolated. No vehicles can get through. A city like Pokrovsk, given its size, many tall buildings and factories with thick walls, could have held out for months, even years—it’s a fortress,” he said.

His assessment was echoed by a marine officer redeployed to Pokrovsk this summer: “The situation is very difficult,” he confirmed, adding that his unit still holds one district “where not a single Russian has entered,” but the fighting “is getting more intense.” According to him, within just a few days the enemy has penetrated every part of the city.

On November 5, Ukraine’s General Staff again denied reports that Ukrainian units had been encircled, saying the Defense Forces were conducting operations to “block the enemy attempting to infiltrate and build up” inside the city, as well as carrying out “strike-and-search actions.” According to the General Staff, Ukrainian troops are reinforcing the defensive flanks of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration and securing key supply routes.

Nevertheless, sources in the army and intelligence quoted by the German outlet Bild report growing fears that Ukrainian units around Pokrovsk could become encircled. According to interviewed soldiers, the situation on some fronts is critical: parts of the forces are effectively cut off from the main group, and troops south of the city are already “almost surrounded.” One soldier said only about 20% of the city remains under control and that even a retreat would be deadly. Another said all they can do now is wait “for liberation or captivity.”

In Kyiv, meanwhile, Bild reports continuing debates over whether President Volodymyr Zelensky bears responsibility for failing to order a timely withdrawal. A Ukrainian diplomat compared the situation to the defense of Bakhmut: “We heroically hold the line, claim the enemy is worse off, and then we have to retreat.” Officers on the ground admit that counterattacks began too late and were limited in scale. Supporters of Zelensky, however, argue that holding Pokrovsk has not only military but also political importance—a defeat could damage Ukraine’s reputation internationally, including in Washington and in the eyes of Donald Trump.

The General Staff said that as of the evening of November 4, there was no encirclement or blockade of cities in the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration by Russian forces; none of the Defense Forces’ units are surrounded, spokesperson Andrii Koval reported.

The situation around Pokrovsk remains critical, Deep State reports. According to the outlet, Russian forces “continue to build up in the city, where their presence is being steadily consolidated.” At the same time, Deep State notes a gradual “absorption of the city,” with Russians “already exercising control over the area, fortifying positions, setting up storage sites, and maintaining logistics routes to infiltrate the city.”

“The enemy is also trying to seize control of the area between Pokrovsk and Hryshyne, while simultaneously attempting to reach the latter. Special units continue active clearing operations there, as this area is key to logistics toward Pokrovsk. However, this does not resolve the main issue—blocking the enemy on the southern outskirts to prevent entry into the city. Given that the Russians are already entrenching and taking control of the terrain, that opportunity is essentially lost,” Deep State notes.

According to Deep State, “the situation remains critical.” While Pokrovsk faces a “gradual absorption,” “Myrnohrad is being cut off from the outside world, and its loss would be the most regrettable among major cities, as it would fall even without a firm hold established there.”

Meanwhile, Zelensky said yesterday that Russian forces have made no gains in Pokrovsk in recent days.

Julian Röpcke reported on X that Russian forces have taken control of about 85% of Pokrovsk, with no signs that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the northern part of the city is changing the situation. Notably, no videos have yet surfaced from the city center showing fighting, strikes, or flag-raising.

On October 31, Western and Ukrainian outlets reported on a helicopter landing by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) forces in Pokrovsk, as covered by Reuters and The Economist correspondent Oliver Carroll.