US President Donald Trump provoked a wave of criticism from medical professionals after attempting to claim a supposed link between the widely used painkiller Tylenol and autism.
Speaking alongside Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump announced that doctors would soon be advised not to prescribe the drug—known in some countries, including the UK, as paracetamol—to pregnant women.
His remarks triggered sharp pushback from experts. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists called the announcement “alarming” and not based on “reliable evidence.” The UK’s National Autistic Society described Trump’s words as “dangerous, unscientific and irresponsible.”
The Rise in Autism Diagnoses: What CDC Data Show and Why Trump’s Numbers Mislead
During his speech, Trump cited a series of statistics, claiming that autism diagnoses in the US had surged over the past two decades. He said the rate had risen from “one in 10,000… about 18 years ago” to “one in 31” by 2025.
The latter figure he cited does match official data. In 2022, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recorded autism prevalence among eight-year-olds in 16 states at exactly one in 31. But the trajectory was far from what the president suggested. In 2007, the year he referenced, no such data exist; in 2006, the CDC estimated the rate at one in 110, and by 2008 it was one in 88.
Most specialists attribute the increase in diagnoses to changes in diagnostic criteria, greater recognition of the condition itself, and more widespread screening—not to a sudden spike in incidence.
Trump also claimed that autism was “more severe” in California than in other states covered by the CDC study. According to the agency’s 2022 estimates, about one in 12 eight-year-old boys in California had an autism diagnosis—the highest rate among boys across all 16 states surveyed. The CDC noted, however, that the state had funded a program training hundreds of local pediatricians in early detection and referral, which in itself may have contributed to higher reported numbers.
The MMR Vaccine and Autism Myths: How a Fabricated Study Continues to Fuel Public Fears
Another of Trump’s claims concerned the combined measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. The US president said vaccinations should be administered “separately” rather than in a single dose, adding: “it seems that when they are mixed, there may be a problem.”
Experts warn that such unfounded statements risk leading parents to forgo vaccinating their children, potentially triggering a resurgence of diseases such as measles.
The discredited notion of a link between childhood vaccines and autism gained wide attention after British physician Andrew Wakefield published a paper in The Lancet in 1998. It later emerged that he had serious financial conflicts of interest, including involvement with patients in a lawsuit against pharmaceutical companies. The UK’s General Medical Council found that the study’s results had been falsified. The paper was retracted, and in 2010 Wakefield was stripped of his medical license.
Numerous studies conducted since have found no link between the MMR vaccine and autism. The most recent major study—a large-scale Danish investigation in 2019 involving 657,461 children—concluded that the data do not support claims that the vaccine causes or triggers autism.
On its website, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that children receive two doses of the combined MMR vaccine: the first at 12–15 months and the second between four and six years of age.
According to the UK government, there is “no evidence” that MMR vaccines should be administered separately. Officials there note that such a move “would be experimental.”
This year the US recorded the highest number of measles cases in more than three decades: according to the CDC, 1,491 infections were confirmed, with three deaths.
“President Trump presented no evidence that the current US immunization schedule is harmful, nor did he provide data showing that the combined MMR vaccine is unsafe,” said David Elliman, professor of child health at University College London. “Advocates of a link between MMR and autism cite a 1998 article in The Lancet, with Andrew Wakefield as lead author. But even the authors at the time stressed they had not proven a link, only suggested further research. That research has been done, and no such link has been found.”
Experts also emphasize that spacing out vaccinations increases the risk of contracting diseases in the intervals between doses, as well as the likelihood of missed shots when multiple doctor visits are required.
The Amish and Cuba as Trump’s Examples: No Statistics, Mythology Instead of Evidence
Trump cited the Amish as an example, claiming that their communities in the US have “virtually no autism.” The Amish traditionally live in isolation and reject many aspects of modern life, including a wary stance toward pharmaceuticals. Trump speculated—without offering evidence—that low Tylenol use in these communities might explain the supposedly lower prevalence of autism.
Scientific research on autism rates among the Amish is extremely scarce. In many cases, diagnoses are made in school, but most Amish end their education after the eighth grade—around age 14.
“I think it is highly unlikely that there are no people with autism among the Amish,” said Eva Loth, professor of cognitive neuroscience at King’s College London. “The question is, how many population-based studies have been conducted among the Amish? And how likely is it that members of this community would seek a diagnosis? There are many reasons why the statistics might show low rates, but that does not mean autism does not exist there.”
A 2010 study by a group of geneticists found that autism affected roughly one in 271 children in Amish communities. The research examined 1,899 children in two large Amish settlements in Ohio and Indiana.
However, it is important to note that research on this subject is extremely limited, and no evidence confirms a link between low vaccination rates and autism prevalence among the Amish.
Trump made a similar claim about Cuba, suggesting that the island’s low autism rates were connected to limited supplies of Tylenol. On what this assumption was based remains unclear. BBC Verify found no official Cuban statistics, and the World Health Organization notes that “the prevalence of autism in many low- and middle-income countries remains unknown.”
From 2007 Statements to a Kennedy Alliance: How Trump’s Views on Vaccination and Autism Have Evolved
Trump has periodically voiced concern about the rising number of autism diagnoses among American children for nearly two decades. As early as 2007, he publicly suggested for the first time that he saw a link between vaccination and the growing prevalence of the condition.
Trump’s interest in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s work dates back at least to 2017, when Kennedy claimed the president had asked him to lead a vaccine safety task force. Seven years later, with Kennedy polling around 5% as an independent candidate, he withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump. In a leaked recording of a campaign phone call, Trump is heard trying to persuade Kennedy into an alliance while discussing discredited claims about the risks of childhood vaccination. After the election, Trump named him his pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, tasking him with “making America healthy again.”
Yet during his first term, Trump did back certain vaccination campaigns. During a measles outbreak in 2019, he said that “people have to get their shots. Vaccination is very important.” His administration also played a central role in the rapid development and early rollout of the Covid-19 vaccination program.