After decades of stability, military relations between the U.S. and Europe are undergoing a transformation. Washington, long the guarantor of security for its European allies, is reassessing its role in the region. Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 has heightened tensions, with the U.S. administration pushing for a redistribution of the military burden—demanding not only increased spending from Europe but also greater autonomy. These changes are unfolding against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, which has become a pivotal factor in reshaping NATO and the entire European security architecture.
American Protection Is No Longer Guaranteed
The transatlantic alliance is facing a serious challenge. For years, Europe regarded the U.S. military presence as a strategic constant—an irreplaceable pillar of deterrence and security. However, the years 2024–2025 have introduced a new reality: Washington is increasingly signaling that continued American military protection requires greater financial and political commitment from its European allies. In response, Europe is attempting to adapt, but the stark demands of Donald Trump’s administration threaten to undermine the very foundation of transatlantic relations.
Times Are Changing
European countries have declared their intention to strengthen defense capabilities and achieve strategic autonomy, but so far, these steps remain largely symbolic. Despite increases in military budgets, concrete commitments and plans for expanding arms production remain underdeveloped. Washington insists that intentions alone are not enough, demanding not only that allies meet the 2% GDP defense spending requirement but exceed it.
Data confirms the gap between intentions and reality: according to NATO’s 2024 report, only 11 out of the alliance’s 31 member states have met the 2% GDP threshold. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, allocates 1.6% of its GDP to defense, while France hovers at 1.9%. Trump, however, insists that “everyone must pay,” and for the first time in decades, American commitment to collective defense is becoming conditional.
New Rules of the Game
The financial burden is only one side of the issue. The U.S. is also demanding that Europe take a more active role in joint military operations and prioritize the purchase of American-made weaponry. The White House has made it clear that preference should be given to U.S. defense manufacturers, a stance that has sparked disagreements within the EU. Paris and Berlin advocate for the development of their own defense industries, but Washington is determined to maintain its role as Europe’s primary arms supplier.
The interests of the American defense industry also play a significant role. Arms procurement trends speak for themselves: Germany is acquiring F-35 fighter jets, Poland is purchasing Patriot air defense systems, and the Baltic states are strengthening cooperation with U.S. contractors. As a result, the U.S. is reducing its physical presence in Europe while simultaneously monetizing the continent’s reliance on American technology and military equipment.
Ukraine as a Stress Test
The divisions between Europe and the U.S. have been most evident in the case of Ukraine. While Europe continues to support Kyiv and increase funding for arms deliveries, the new U.S. administration is displaying growing skepticism. The suspension of a U.S. military aid package in 2024 highlighted just how dependent Kyiv remains on decisions made in Washington. This has been a wake-up call for European capitals, making them realize that American support could weaken at any moment.
Some EU countries are already considering long-term funding for Ukraine without U.S. involvement. However, this approach carries significant economic and political risks. Even if Europe pools its resources, its military capabilities cannot fully replace American supplies of advanced weaponry. A scenario in which Washington redefines its role in the Ukrainian conflict would present serious challenges for NATO, forcing Europe to take a more autonomous approach to its security.
What’s Next?
The prospect of weakening transatlantic ties remains concerning but not inevitable. Europe must either accept American conditions or seek alternative means of ensuring its security. The latter, despite ambitious initiatives to develop a European defense framework, remains more of a long-term vision than an immediate solution.
Washington, in turn, risks diminishing its global strategic influence if it pursues an overly isolationist course. For decades, the U.S. has viewed its presence in Europe as a strategic advantage—not only as a means of deterring Russia but also as a platform for projecting power into neighboring regions. Should the U.S. retreat, European nations will face a choice: either rapidly expand their own military capabilities or prepare for a world where Washington is no longer their security guarantor.
The reality is that the era of America providing European security with near-unquestioned commitment is coming to an end. Europe now faces a difficult but unavoidable question: how far is it willing to go in strengthening its own defense, and how much will it have to pay to maintain its alliance with the U.S.?