Swiss Initiative to Cap Population at 10 Million Gains Support

Business representatives warn that restrictions on immigration would reduce access to skilled labour and undermine economic growth. Economiesuisse, the country’s biggest business lobby, described the initiative as “chaotic” and said it could weaken Switzerland’s competitiveness and destabilise relations with the EU—its main trading partner.

The proposal reflects a broader rise in anti-immigration sentiment across Europe, where it is increasingly shaping the political agenda and strengthening nationalist forces. Migration has become a central line of political division, influencing the outcome of both elections and referendums.

“The poll results are a call to action: people understand that the campaign will be intense, and that the outcome is not predetermined,” said Frédéric Rochat of Lombard Odier. According to him, Switzerland’s growing attractiveness amid global instability has driven up net migration, but the country is now seeing a rise in sentiments reminiscent of pre-Brexit Britain—a desire to “take back control”.

The fight for votes is expected to be fierce, with both sides stepping up their campaigns to persuade undecided voters. Much of the discontent is tied to rising migration from EU countries after Switzerland joined the Schengen area in 2008. Critics argue that this has contributed to higher housing costs and greater pressure on urban services, especially in Zurich and Geneva.

If the initiative is approved, Bern could face a conflict with Brussels, since restrictions on freedom of movement would run counter to Switzerland’s obligations under its agreements with the EU and its participation in the Schengen area. Opponents of the initiative also point to the absence of a clear mechanism for implementing it.

The country’s population has already passed 9 million, and almost 30% of residents are foreigners. Major Swiss companies, including Nestlé, Novartis, Roche, and Partners Group, depend heavily on foreign specialists.

The initiative is unfolding against a broader dispute over the country’s long-term migration model. Switzerland currently operates a dual system: relatively free access for EU citizens and strict quotas for workers from elsewhere, who are admitted mainly when they have in-demand skills. Some politicians and business figures are proposing a shift towards a more selective, Singapore-style model, in which immigration is managed according to economic needs, but that is incompatible with the country’s existing agreements with the EU.

Adecco chief executive Denis Machuel said Switzerland’s population growth is outpacing that of most European countries, reinforcing demands for “adequate control”. At the same time, he warned that restricting access for skilled foreign workers or abandoning freedom of movement with the EU would bring the country neither economic nor social benefits.

According to Sotomo analyst Michael Hermann, although support for such initiatives often declines as voting day approaches, migration issues remain an exception—polls sometimes even underestimate the final result. “The outcome remains open, but the initiative has a good chance of being approved,” he said.

The federal government acknowledges the problem of housing shortages and pressure on infrastructure, but has yet to offer a comprehensive solution. An attempt to tighten rules on property purchases by citizens of non-EU countries, presented last month, was meant to show that the authorities were responding, but was criticised as inadequate and poorly targeted.

“This should be a wake-up call both for the government and for opponents of the initiative,” said a representative of an international company in Switzerland. According to him, more convincing solutions are needed in urban planning, as well as a clear understanding of which migration model the country intends to choose.