Scottish National Party Relaunches the Independence Campaign

“I am convinced that it is revulsion at Westminster’s rightward drift that will once again change Scotland’s status,” Swinney declared as he closed the party’s conference on Monday. “This race to the right in Westminster is one of the reasons independence is so urgent and necessary.” Though he did not mention the Reform UK leader by name, the reference was unmistakable.

Since the independence movement’s defeat in the 2014 referendum, the SNP has maintained that its victories in the 2016 and 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections give it a mandate to hold a new vote. Yet these claims have been repeatedly rejected by successive UK governments, which cite the party’s own earlier assertion that the 2014 referendum was a “once-in-a-generation” event. Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer has likewise made clear he will not authorise another referendum regardless of the election outcome.

“In many ways, it’s the same strategy Nicola Sturgeon pursued without success, only with minor adjustments,” said a former SNP adviser who requested anonymity. “And I’m not sure John Swinney can secure a majority and persuade the UK government to allow a referendum if she couldn’t.”

A party veteran who was effectively pulled back into frontline politics amid a crisis, Swinney has managed to stabilise the SNP and commands enormous respect among its supporters. Yet many doubt whether he can achieve as grand a goal as independence. Others, however, believe that this stern politician from Blairgowrie could be the one to lead the country into a new era.

“One day, John Swinney will be on Scottish banknotes. His statues will stand in Edinburgh—the capital of an independent Scotland,” said one candidate running in next year’s elections.

Swinney’s “adjustment” to the independence strategy lies in setting a new objective. At the conference on Saturday, delegates overwhelmingly backed his plan: if the party secures an absolute majority in the May elections, this, according to Swinney, would constitute a new mandate for a second referendum—one Westminster could no longer ignore.

The nationalists have precedent to point to: in 2011, after the SNP won a majority of seats, then–UK Prime Minister David Cameron agreed to the first referendum. The current government, however, has no intention of following that path.

According to party strategists, Swinney’s initiative is meant to inject new energy into the SNP, whose poll numbers currently lag behind support for independence, which remains around 50 percent. But the strategy carries significant risks.

Beyond the obvious obstacle—the Labour Party’s firm refusal to shift its position and allow a referendum—the SNP has set itself an extraordinarily high bar. In the nearly thirty-year history of the Scottish Parliament, an absolute majority by a single party has been achieved only once. Recent polls predict an SNP victory, aided by the weakening of Scottish Labour and divisions among unionists, but not a majority of seats.

“John Swinney undoubtedly considers the conference a success. He asserted his leadership and secured backing for the strategy he chose,” said Fergus Mutch, former adviser to Alex Salmond, who achieved the 2011 majority. “But the problem is—what if he falls short? If there’s no majority in May, will anyone in the party—MPs, members—really believe that the SNP will simply forget about independence for five years? That’s impossible.”

Even in the event of victory and a majority—which Swinney’s team is cautiously aiming for—the question remains how to deliver on the promise and move the country closer to independence. “Swinney is making a serious bet on political precedent, and that’s fair enough, but the reality is that we operate within a constitutional framework where the Supreme Court has made the only clear ruling on the matter—that the final decision rests with Westminster,” Mutch added. “The SNP must be careful not to overestimate its own leverage.”

Speaking on Saturday, Swinney remarked, “No one knows what tactics I’ll use if we win 65 seats… So stay tuned.” His cryptic statement—presumably hinting at possible new legal action—has yet to convince everyone. “The ball should really be in Labour’s court; they’re the ones we need to pressure to recognise our mandate if we win it. But to be honest, there’s nothing we can do,” admitted one SNP official.

Despite his growing visibility in Scotland, the Reform UK leader remains far less popular north of the border than in England and Wales. Yet the prospect of a Farage-led Westminster—he currently leads in the polls—has prompted the SNP to wonder whether its moment may finally have come.

“You’re forgetting about Farage,” said one senior party figure when asked what makes this latest push for independence different from previous ones. “His values are toxic to Scottish people.” “This could be the best time to push for independence: the Unionist vote is divided, and the threat of Farage entering Downing Street gives people an extra incentive to back separation,” added another candidate in next year’s election. “It might be now or never.”

The counterargument is that previous so-called “turning points”—such as Britain’s exit from the EU, despite most Scots voting against it, or the election of Boris Johnson as prime minister—failed to shift public opinion.

Still, lacking any other factor capable of tipping the balance toward independence and forcing Westminster to soften its stance, the party continues to pin its hopes on the emergence of a new “bogeyman.”

“I’d rather we focused on making the case for independence—building its appeal to a point where it becomes undeniable—instead of beating the referendum drum again,” admitted another SNP member. “But I understand that’s not a popular view.”