Russia is receiving up to $150mn a day in additional budget revenues from oil sales—and is emerging as one of the main beneficiaries of the conflict in the Middle East.
By some estimates, Moscow has already secured between $1.3bn and $1.9bn in additional tax revenues from oil exports after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sharply increased demand for Russian crude from India and China. Another contributing factor was the easing of U.S. sanctions on Russia and a reduction in Washington’s pressure on India to curb purchases of Russian oil. As a result, a significant number of tankers have been heading toward the Indian Ocean.
Based on industry data and analysts’ assessments, Russia’s federal budget could receive between $3.3bn and $4.9bn in additional revenues by the end of March. The projection assumes that Urals crude will average $70—$80 a barrel this month, compared with about $52 over the previous two months.
For Moscow, this marks a sharp reversal of fortunes. Before the war with Iran began, Russia had been grappling with falling oil prices and the near loss of the Indian market—largely due to pressure from the United States.
In February, exports of Russian crude and oil products fell by 11.4 percent—to 6.6mn barrels a day. That is the lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to a report by the International Energy Agency published Thursday.
The outlook now depends largely on how long the conflict in the Middle East continues. Yet even at this stage, high prices “will help Russia meet its budget targets this quarter and may even allow it to start setting aside funds,” said Borys Dodonov, head of the Energy and Climate Research Program at the Kyiv School of Economics.
The war with Iran is also opening an opportunity for Russia to expand its influence on global energy markets, as countries in the Persian Gulf are now unable to fully export their output.
Moscow is seeking to capitalize on this moment. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said energy markets were moving toward a “new pricing reality” and suggested that exports of energy to Europe could resume.
Hours later, the Kremlin reported a “very productive conversation” between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump later mentioned the possibility of “lifting sanctions” on several unnamed countries in order to lower prices “until the situation stabilizes.”
The shift is raising concern among U.S. allies. A study by a major energy company warns that if disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies persist, European governments could face pressure to postpone a planned ban on Russian LNG imports—potentially undermining years of efforts to isolate Moscow.
Shipping-tracking data from Kpler show that a “significant volume” of Russian oil cargoes is currently at sea, with most of it moving through the Indian Ocean toward Indian ports. As of Wednesday, India’s imports of Russian crude had reached 1.5mn barrels a day—50 percent higher than at the start of last month.
“If current delivery schedules, market intelligence, and cargo movements persist, the total volume of Russian oil supplies for the month could approach 2mn barrels a day,” said Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s lead analyst in New Delhi.
“Russia is the main winner of this conflict,” he added.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have sent shockwaves through global oil and gas markets. According to Vaibhav Raghunandan, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, roughly 60mn tonnes of oil and 7mn tonnes of LNG could temporarily disappear from the global market each month.
In an effort to compensate for lost Middle Eastern supplies, India and China have sharply increased purchases of Russian crude. Within a week of the United States and Israel launching strikes on Iran, their imports from Russia rose by 22 percent compared with February’s average daily level.
“If the crisis drags on, they will start competing with each other for Russian oil,” said Sergei Vakulenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
At the same time, the volume of Russian oil held in tankers at sea has fallen by 11mn barrels—to 125mn barrels since the start of the Middle East conflict, according to Kpler data.
Russian crude is now selling for roughly $20—$30 a barrel more than its average price over the previous three months. Kpler analysts note that on the Indian market Russian oil is trading at about $5 a barrel above the Brent benchmark—marking a reversal from the previous situation, when it was sold at a noticeable discount.
According to calculations by Sergei Vakulenko, every additional $10 in the average monthly oil price brings Russian exporters about $2.8bn in extra revenue, of which the state collects $1.63bn in taxes. That translates into roughly $54mn in additional budget income per day.
At current prices, Russia’s budget could be receiving an additional $110—$160mn a day—or a total of $1.3bn—$1.9bn over the first 12 days of the war. If this pace continues, additional revenues over a month could reach between $3.3bn and $5bn.
However, to offset the drop in energy revenues earlier this year, Moscow would need the current market conditions to persist for several more months.
Energy revenues—mainly from the mineral extraction tax on oil—fell by nearly 50 percent in the first two months of 2026 compared with the same period last year. As a result, Russia’s budget deficit has already exceeded 90 percent of the level planned for the entire year.
For the first time since 2022, pressure on the budget has become genuinely tangible. According to Reuters, officials in Moscow have even considered cutting spending in this year’s budget by at least 10 percent.
Only a few weeks ago, Russian officials were concerned about how to manage April’s budget shortfall, but they are now confident they will be able to get through the period without serious difficulty, according to a source familiar with the government’s plans.
Analysts say that if the crisis drags on, Russia could increase its oil production. It is currently keeping output about 300,000 barrels a day below its OPEC+ quota.
“We believe Russia has at least 400,000 barrels a day of additional production capacity that could be brought online in a relatively short period, although it may take several months for those volumes to reach the market,” said Ronald Smith, founder of Emerging Markets Oil and Gas Consulting Partners.
However, Moscow will only be able to realize this potential under certain external conditions.
“How far—and for how long—the United States is prepared to relax strict sanctions on Russian oil exports remains unclear,” said Michael Moynihan, head of Russia research at Wood Mackenzie, “especially while the war in Ukraine continues.”