Russia Has Benefited More Than Anyone Else From the War in the Middle East

Russia’s seaborne oil exports are holding near their highest levels since the start of the year: average shipments in the four weeks to May 24 reached 3.66 million barrels a day. That is roughly 100,000 barrels above the 2025 average and above the annual averages for every year since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022. Russia has emerged as one of the main economic beneficiaries of the Middle East conflict.

Russian oil became especially important for China and India after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in the first weeks of its conflict with the United States and Israel. The move caused the largest supply shock in history: shipments from the Persian Gulf fell by roughly 15 million barrels a day, and only about a third of those volumes could be redirected. Refiners began looking for alternative sources—and demand for Russian crude rose.

Prices for Russian oil rose alongside global benchmarks, while Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily refrain from sanctions against Russian shipments further eased exports. India’s purchases rose most sharply: in May, deliveries to the country may average about 1.85 million barrels a day—nearly 70% more than in February, before the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began.

The total volume of Russian oil on tankers reached about 119 million barrels by Sunday—roughly 20% above the mid-April low. Almost all of that volume is now in transit rather than sitting idle while awaiting buyers.

The rise in export flows coincided with a change in Ukrainian drone tactics. Whereas export terminals were previously the main targets, recent months have seen strikes concentrated on oil refineries. Last week, refineries in Yaroslavl, Ryazan, and Nizhny Novgorod—with a combined capacity of about 1 million barrels a day—came under attack. This shift in tactics indirectly increases the amount of crude available for export. If strikes on terminals resume, shipments could fall again.

The average gross value of Russia’s oil exports in the four weeks to May 24 rose to $2.36 billion a week. According to Argus Media, Urals crude loaded in the Baltic rose by about $0.70 to $89.64 a barrel, while Black Sea prices gained $0.80 to $88.12. The strongest increase came in Far Eastern ESPO crude, up $2.10 to $97.65 a barrel. Delivered prices for India, however, fell for a fifth consecutive week—down $1.10 to $114.86 a barrel.

Shipments to Asian buyers remain stable at about 3.47 million barrels a day. Volumes on vessels directly naming China and India as their final destination have fallen in recent weeks, but this largely reflects logistics: many tankers first list intermediate points—the Suez Canal or Port Said—while their true route becomes clear only later.

Shipments to Turkey fell to about 80,000 barrels a day—the lowest level since March 2023. Exports to Syria declined to 40,000 barrels: vessels on this route often switch off tracking systems after passing Crete, so actual volumes are estimated using satellite imagery near the port of Baniyas.