American neoconservative Robert Kagan argued in an article for The Atlantic that the United States is heading toward a strategic defeat in its war with Iran, the consequences of which, he says, “can neither be repaired nor ignored.”
Kagan writes that despite 37 days of large-scale U.S. and Israeli strikes, which killed a significant number of Iranian leaders and severely weakened the country’s military capabilities, Tehran made no concessions.
In his account, Donald Trump halted further escalation after Iran’s March 18 strike on the Ras Laffan gas complex in Qatar. Kagan claims the damage inflicted there will take years to repair.
The author argues that Iran will retain the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and therefore maintain leverage over global energy supplies. In his view, that would allow Tehran to increase pressure on Gulf states while strengthening its position alongside China and Russia.
Kagan also warns that the war has damaged America’s international standing. He describes the United States as a “paper tiger,” points to depleted weapons stockpiles, and argues that the conflict is accelerating the emergence of a “post-American world.”
In his view, the situation could push China toward more aggressive actions against Taiwan and encourage Russia toward further confrontation in Europe.