Republican senators are increasingly warning Donald Trump about the political risks that could emerge as economic conditions deteriorate. In their assessment, the administration’s tariff policy—combined with a sharp reduction in global oil supplies—could leave the party facing unpleasant consequences in the November elections.
During Trump’s second presidential term, soft employment figures and inflation that remains above the desired level have already become a persistent problem. However, Republican lawmakers note that the situation has been compounded by a new combination of factors—a full-scale military conflict with Iran and fresh uncertainty surrounding trade policy after the Supreme Court struck down a key element of the president’s authority to impose tariffs.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) warned this week that if oil prices do not come down and voters’ perception of the economy does not improve, Republicans could face a “catastrophic defeat in the November elections.”
According to Paul, panic could erupt within the party in the fall if oil prices remain at their current level because of supply shortages in the Middle East.
“The closer we get to the election, if oil is $100 a barrel in September or October, I think you’ll see mass fear and hysteria among Republicans,” he predicted.
A growing awareness of the potential political consequences is also taking hold among senior members of the Trump administration, as well as some of Paul’s fellow Republicans in Congress.
“There’s an unpleasant realization that inflation isn’t going anywhere. Over Biden’s four years, prices rose by about 20 percent. They’re not coming back down—we’re simply adding new increases, albeit at a slower pace. If your salary hasn’t risen by 25 percent over the past five years, you’re living worse today than you were five years ago,” Paul said.
“I think the president is beginning to feel it,” he added. “The less talk there is about unconditional surrender and about us choosing the next ayatollah—and the more realism enters the discussion—the better.”
“For the Republican Party—and for politics in general—the sooner the war ends, the better it will be for us,” the senator said.
One Republican senator, who asked not to be named while discussing internal deliberations, said his colleagues have been concerned for several months about voters’ negative perception of the economy and fear that the war could become a significant source of additional pressure on it.
According to the lawmaker, many in the party were “caught off guard by the scale of the conflict, the scope of the military objectives that have been declared, and are trying to understand where all of this is heading.”
He also pointed to lower turnout among Republican voters compared with Democrats in last week’s primary elections in Texas as another troubling signal for the party.
“Democrats are highly motivated and are turning out to vote in large numbers. Republican voters are far less motivated, and we have a lot of work to do,” he said.
A new NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted in late February—early March by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, found that 62 percent of respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the rising cost of living. A year ago, 55 percent of those surveyed expressed the same view.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who faces a competitive reelection campaign, says voters in her state are unhappy about rising gasoline prices.
“Obviously, they’re unhappy. Many residents of rural Maine have to commute long distances to work. We are a very rural state,” she said.
Collins nevertheless expressed hope that the economic consequences of the war could push Iran’s leadership to scale back retaliatory strikes against U.S. allies in the region.
“If this continues, it will hurt the Iranians themselves, because their own oil will not be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” she noted.
The military conflict with Iran has effectively frozen oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, where vessels could become vulnerable to retaliatory missile and drone strikes from Iran. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies pass through this narrow maritime corridor.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $116 a barrel on Monday but had fallen to $90 by Wednesday. Before the large-scale U.S. and Israeli operation—missile and air strikes against Iran on February 28—WTI closed at $67 a barrel.
Republicans from agricultural states warn that high fuel prices—combined with falling commodity prices driven by trade tensions with China and other major overseas markets—are increasing pressure on farmers.
Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa said he has been receiving calls from farmers who are losing money because of rising fuel costs.
“They’re losing a dollar on corn, two dollars on soybeans, and that’s just another piece of bad news,” Grassley said.
He suggested that measures such as tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and allowing year-round sales of E15—a blend of gasoline and corn-based ethanol—could help bring oil prices down.
The Department of Energy announced Wednesday afternoon that it would release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said he spoke this week with the Kansas Farm Bureau and warned that “the situation across the agricultural heartland is the most difficult financial situation I can remember.”
“It is a combination of high production costs—including the price of fuel and natural gas as a component of fertilizer—and agricultural commodity prices that are too low to cover those expenses,” he said.
According to him, farmers “are very eager for the president to conclude negotiations on trade agreements that will reduce the tariff and non-tariff barriers agriculture faces in many countries.”
“They very much want that to happen as quickly as possible,” Moran added.
Additional uncertainty on the global trade front has been created by a recent Supreme Court ruling, which found that Trump did not have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs. That decision has raised questions about whether the president will retain the leverage needed to conclude negotiations on more favorable trade agreements with key partners.
Moran noted that the outcome of the battle for control of the Senate and the House of Representatives this fall is difficult to predict, but stressed that the state of the economy will be one of the decisive factors in the election.
“It is hard to predict how this will end, but the economy overall, the cost of doing business, and any difficulties in agriculture are not good signals for Republicans,” he said.