Nigel Farage compared Reform UK’s success in the local elections to clearing Becher’s Brook—one of the most difficult obstacles in the Grand National horse race. But the result may prove to be only the first stage in a far more difficult struggle for power at the national level.
By Friday evening, May 8, Reform UK had won more than 1,200 seats in local councils across England and taken control of 12 councils—the strongest performance of any party. According to BBC estimates, the party secured about 26% of the nationwide vote, broadly matching its standing in national polling.
Reform achieved particularly notable gains in traditionally Conservative areas. In Essex, the party stripped the Conservatives of council control for the first time in more than 25 years, winning districts that include constituencies represented by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and shadow housing secretary James Cleverly. The party also took control of Suffolk County Council and Havering Council in east London.
Farage said Reform had become “the most national party in the country.”
“What other party is competitive from the northeast of Scotland to the southwestern tip of Cornwall?” he said.
In elections to the Welsh Parliament, the party finished second, while in Scotland it was running third in polling by Friday evening.
Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common think tank, said the results reflected not only a transfer of some Labour voters to Reform, but also the mobilization of people who previously did not vote.
“Now the ‘red wall’ belongs to them,” he said, pointing to Reform’s sharp rise in support in Wigan and Hartlepool.
Reform’s rise is closely tied to the legacy of the 2016 Brexit referendum. In districts where more than 70% voted to leave the EU, the party improved its result by 46 percentage points, while in areas that backed remaining in the bloc the increase was only 19 points.
Experts, however, warn that the party may be approaching the limits of expanding support through the Conservative electorate alone. The Conservatives still hold roughly 18% of the vote and retained control of several London boroughs, including Westminster and Bexley.
Tryl argues that for further growth Reform will need a clearer and more independent economic platform capable of attracting former left-wing voters in northern England and the Midlands.
Despite Farage’s expectations, there has not yet been a mass defection of Conservative lawmakers to Reform. The latest prominent figures to join the party were Andrew Rosindell and former home secretary Suella Braverman in January.
Another risk for Farage is the growing strength of more radical right-wing forces. Restore Britain, the party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, won all 10 seats it contested in Great Yarmouth.
John Curtice, a professor at the University of Strathclyde, said it was unlikely Reform could reach 40% support. But in a fragmented political landscape, he argued, even a result “in the high twenties” could prove sufficient to win a general election.
One of the party’s biggest obstacles may become tactical voting. Analyst Steve Akehurst said that in a parliamentary election voters would likely coordinate more actively around candidates capable of blocking Reform.
For that to happen, however, Labour would need to clearly outperform the Greens and establish itself as the obvious “anti-Reform” choice. At the moment, the two parties are polling at roughly the same level—around 17–18%.
Despite that, bookmakers are already naming Reform UK as the favorite to win Britain’s next general election.