A portion of progressive voters has turned away from the Labour Party because of Keir Starmer’s lack of a clear ideological position and compelling political vision. That is the conclusion of a study by the UCL Policy Lab based on research by American pollster Stan Greenberg, who previously worked with Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.
The findings have been reviewed both inside the prime minister’s office and by allies of potential future leadership contenders within the party—including Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, and Angela Rayner.
Labour is bracing for difficult results in Thursday’s elections, after which Starmer’s standing within the party could weaken significantly.
The authors of the report argue that many voters see Starmer as a politician who feels “discomfort” toward progressive values. Among the issues where the government could adopt a firmer and more emotionally resonant stance, the study cites opposition to Donald Trump and the defense of the environmental agenda.
According to Greenberg’s findings, future elections will be won by the political force capable of uniting both left- and right-leaning electoral blocs. In his view, however, that can be achieved not only through policy delivery and effective governance, but also through a clear articulation of core values.
Policy Lab director Marc Stears said Starmer came to power “on a wave of frustration with politics as usual and promises of change,” but public dissatisfaction with his leadership is now becoming increasingly visible.
“Part of this is connected to his personal style, but the research shows the problem also lies in his discomfort toward progressive values,” he said.
As an example, the authors point to Starmer’s decision not to involve Britain in the war with Iran. According to the study, voters reacted positively to the decision itself, but many expected a clearer values-based explanation of the government’s position rather than arguments framed purely in legalistic or technocratic terms.
Researcher James Buggaly noted that progressive voters expect closer alignment with the European Union, but said that alone is insufficient without a more radical agenda on public services, taxation, climate policy, and democracy.
“Unlike previous Labour prime ministers, Keir Starmer faces a serious challenge from a party to his left. How Labour responds to the rise of the Greens will shape British politics for years to come,” he said.
The polling also showed that roughly three-quarters of voters hold a negative view of Starmer—a level comparable to ratings once recorded by former party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Among potential alternatives, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham received the strongest ratings, with roughly one-third of respondents viewing him positively.
The study found that 13–15% of progressive voters are open to supporting Labour, while among Reform UK supporters the figure stands at only around 2%. Liberal Democrat voters were found to be more inclined to back Labour than Green Party supporters.
At the same time, the report suggests Reform UK’s growth may be nearing its ceiling: only a small portion of Conservative voters appear willing to switch to Nigel Farage’s party.
The report separately notes that a hard line toward Donald Trump is viewed extremely positively by voters. However, many progressive supporters believe Starmer has acted too cautiously despite his public criticism of the US president in recent months.
Climate policy also remains particularly important for voters. In recent months, Starmer has increasingly emphasized the issue of energy independence, linking its importance to rising fossil fuel prices amid the war with Iran.
The authors of the study also point to a deep personal dislike of the prime minister among parts of the public which, in their view, goes beyond communication problems and reflects an inability to adapt to the country’s new political polarization.