Peace Plan: How It All Began and How It Changed

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives in the Middle East amid a recently brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by Washington, and the release of Israeli hostages. He is accompanied by key negotiators—special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and former adviser on Middle East policy. They first visit Israel, where they are greeted as heroes, before traveling to Egypt for an international summit. There, Trump and regional partners sign the “Declaration on Lasting Peace and Prosperity”—a document already being hailed as the most significant diplomatic achievement of his second term.

During the 14-hour flight from Egypt to the United States aboard Air Force One, Trump instructs Witkoff and Kushner to draft a new peace plan—this time for Russia and Ukraine.

That same day, possibly still in the air, Witkoff contacts Yuri Ushakov, the Russian president’s aide for international affairs. Ushakov congratulates him on securing the ceasefire in Gaza. Witkoff replies that it is now necessary “to resolve the Russia-Ukraine issue.” They then move on to discuss a possible phone call between Trump and Putin.

Witkoff offers Ushakov advice on how the Russian president should approach the conversation: congratulate Trump on his Middle East success, emphasize respect for his pursuit of peace, avoid rushing to make territorial demands—though Witkoff immediately notes that without changes to borders, no agreement will be possible.

Later, Bloomberg will publish a transcript of the exchange. Ushakov will neither confirm nor deny its authenticity.

Putin and Trump hold a phone conversation, the transcript of which is not disclosed. Public information indicates that Putin congratulates Trump on his diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Later, Ushakov tells reporters that the Russian president warned Trump against supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles.

After the call, Trump announces his intention to hold an in-person meeting with Putin in Budapest in the near future.

Unofficial reports suggest that Putin, disregarding Witkoff’s recommendations, nevertheless raised the issue of territory: he demanded full control over Donbas and expressed willingness, in exchange, to cede parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Zelensky arrives in Washington and meets with Trump at the White House, where the issue of potentially supplying Ukraine with U.S. long-range Tomahawk missiles is raised. Trump treats the idea cautiously, believing such a step could complicate U.S. relations with Russia. In response, Zelensky suggests that Ukraine is ready to supply drones to the United States. Trump speaks highly of Ukrainian drones—likely influenced by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who argues that the U.S. must sharply increase drone procurement and learn from Ukraine’s mass production.

Both leaders again emphasize their desire for peace—yet present no new concrete initiatives.

Russia sends the United States an informal document outlining its positions in the event of peace talks. The full text is unknown, but it reportedly includes demands for Russia to retain full control over Donbas and for a ban on deploying NATO forces on Ukrainian territory.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. They were expected to agree on an in-person meeting to prepare a Trump-Putin summit in Budapest. However, after the call, it is announced that the meeting between the foreign ministers is canceled.

The United States states that any negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war must begin with an immediate ceasefire. Lavrov categorically rejects this demand.

Trump announces that the meeting with Putin is canceled.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and special representative of the Russian president, flies to Miami, where Witkoff and Kushner are located. Over the course of three days, they hold intensive discussions about a possible peace plan.

It appears Dmitriev brings a document outlining Russia’s demands, formatted as a draft agreement. Reuters will later report, citing anonymous sources, that this document became the basis for the plan the Trump administration is working on.

It will eventually emerge that this text—or a version of it—has existed for several months and that some journalists have already seen it. Dmitriev prepared it as a statement of Russia’s position for negotiations with the United States following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The document is likely close to—or identical to—the one Moscow sent Washington a week earlier ahead of the possible Putin-Trump meeting.

In conversations with Witkoff and Kushner in Miami, Dmitriev stresses that Ukraine must cede the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to Russia, abandon plans to join NATO and substantially reduce its armed forces. Available information suggests he maintains regular contact with Witkoff and Kushner both before and after the trip.

Dmitriev travels to Riyadh for the Future Investment Initiative forum and speaks with Ushakov by phone. They discuss a certain “paper”—almost certainly referring to Russia’s demands. Ushakov says: “I sent everything there. We’ll talk there tomorrow.” It can be assumed that “there” refers to an upcoming conversation with Putin. Dmitriev remarks that “they [Witkoff and Kushner?] won’t take our version entirely, but at least something as close to it as possible.” Ushakov expresses doubt that the Americans might “rewrite” something and then “claim it was agreed with us.”

Later, Bloomberg will publish a transcript of the conversation. Dmitriev will call it “fake.”

Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council secretary, Rustem Umerov, arrives in Miami. Witkoff and Kushner present him with their draft peace plan. Umerov notes that the proposed framework is significantly more favorable to Russia than to Ukraine. They then twice connect with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the document in detail. Zelensky says the project requires major revisions.

The White House hosts the crown prince, prime minister and de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. During the event, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio receives a copy of the draft prepared by Witkoff and Kushner.

Also in attendance is Axios reporter Barak Ravid, known for his deep connections in Washington’s diplomatic circles. Somehow, he gains access to the document and soon publishes the first report about the emergence of a new “Trump plan.”

Additional details are revealed by Reuters, Financial Times and The Economist, citing anonymous sources within the Trump administration. The reports indicate that the plan envisions recognizing Russia’s control over Crimea, Donbas and those parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions it has occupied, drastically reducing the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and providing Ukraine with international security guarantees.

U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll arrives in Kyiv. Officially, his visit focuses on military-technical cooperation: he intends to study Ukraine’s experience in creating mass production of inexpensive and effective combat drones. However, shortly before his departure, Trump unexpectedly instructs Driscoll to deliver the draft peace plan to Volodymyr Zelensky.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova say Moscow has received no peace proposals through official channels and therefore does not intend to comment on the materials leaked to the press.

Zelensky meets with Driscoll and receives a copy of the peace plan. He expresses readiness to work on the document.

Kyiv and Washington set what is described as an “aggressive deadline” for reaching an agreement. Trump demands that Ukraine give its consent by Thanksgiving—November 27.

Otherwise, the United States warns it will halt intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries.

First, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko, and then Axios, publish the text of Trump’s plan. The document contains 28 points and is clearly a draft: it includes internal inconsistencies (for example, it claims the United States will mediate between Russia and NATO, even though the U.S. is itself a NATO member), features unusual terminology (instead of “Donetsk region” or “DPR,” it simply refers to “Donetsk”) and shows uneven levels of detail across different provisions.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Republican senators and states that the document under discussion is not “Trump’s peace plan.” At the same time, no one publicly questions the authenticity of the leaked text.

Rubio then travels to Geneva, where he meets with the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Andriy Yermak. Representing the United States, Witkoff and Driscoll also attend the meeting. Rubio and Yermak stress that they “went through some points” of the plan and “made good progress.”

Delegations from the United Kingdom, France and Germany are also in Geneva. They attempt to promote their own version of an agreement, which preserves Ukraine’s right to pursue NATO membership, does not require reducing the size of its armed forces and calls for continued freezing of Russian assets until Ukraine is compensated for war-related damage. However, the European initiative receives little attention.

Following the talks, Rustem Umerov states that Ukraine and the United States have reached a “common understanding” on key points and that Kyiv “expects support from European partners in the next steps.” He also says Zelensky intends to travel to Washington soon for a meeting with Trump.

Sources cited by the Financial Times note that the document has changed significantly: some of the original 28 points were removed, others rewritten. RBC-Ukraine specifies that revisions affected, in particular, provisions on the size of Ukraine’s army (the initial proposal called for reducing it from the current 800–850 thousand to 600 thousand personnel) and on control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the original draft envisioned splitting its output equally between Russia and Ukraine).

The parties did not discuss territorial issues, postponing them until the meeting between Zelensky and Trump.

Driscoll holds negotiations on a possible agreement with representatives of Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi. According to the Financial Times, the Ukrainian side is represented by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry. According to Axios, Russia is represented by “military intelligence chiefs”—most likely GRU director Igor Kostyukov and his deputy for information operations at the General Staff, Alexander Zorin, who previously took part in the Istanbul talks.

The Russian and Ukrainian delegations appear to have been in Abu Dhabi for direct contacts, most likely regarding a prisoner exchange: such processes are typically handled by military intelligence, and similar meetings often take place in the Middle East with local mediation. Driscoll’s arrival comes as a surprise to the participants.

Yermak states that Zelensky hopes to meet with Trump as soon as possible—potentially as early as November 27.

At the same time, Ushakov confirms: “We were given the draft that is being discussed, and it will, of course, undergo revision and modification from our side, and surely from the Ukrainian side, the American side and the European side as well.”

Media sources report that the document has been stripped of provisions on reducing the size of Ukraine’s army, transferring part of Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction and granting amnesty for actions committed during the war.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov states: “Right now the only substantive proposal is the American project, Trump’s project. We believe it could become a very solid basis for negotiations.” At the same time, he emphasizes that Moscow has not received an updated version of the document.

Trump tells reporters that the number of points in the plan has been reduced from 28 to 22 and again insists that the leaked text is not his peace proposal but merely a “concept.” Nevertheless, he effectively confirms that this document underpins all ongoing discussions.

Bloomberg publishes transcripts of two phone conversations involving Yuri Ushakov—one with Witkoff on October 14 and another with Dmitriev on the 29th. The source of the recordings remains unknown. Ushakov does not deny their authenticity.