Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan Keeps Power in Election, Securing a Majority for His Party—a Victory for His Course Toward Closer Ties With Europe

After 98.5% of ballots had been counted by Monday morning, Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party was leading with 49.9%, ahead of rivals who favored closer relations with Russia and a tougher position in talks with Baku. The main challenger—Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who is under house arrest on charges of calling for the violent overthrow of the constitutional order and corruption—had 23.4%.

Pashinyan declared victory during the night, when only 10% of ballots had been counted. “This is a historic victory that will ensure the survival and development of the Republic of Armenia,” he said, later posting a video of himself smiling in a fedora to Queen’s “We Are the Champions.”

The result gives the party about 61 of 105 seats—down from its previous 71, but still a convincing mandate for reducing dependence on Russia. In recent years, Yerevan has distanced itself from the Moscow-led military alliance, reduced the presence of Russian security forces on its borders and moved closer to the West—Armenia even recently hosted Volodymyr Zelensky at a summit.

The turn toward the West has triggered a sharp exchange with Moscow. Vladimir Putin has made clear that Armenia will have to choose between the Russia-led customs union and a course toward the EU. Pashinyan, who has avoided a full break, said on election day that such a question was not currently on the table. Ahead of the vote, Russia nevertheless increased pressure: citing sanitary requirements, it restricted imports of Armenian goods—from flowers to fruit.

That position resonated with some voters. At a polling station in Yerevan, 66-year-old pensioner Anahit said she did not believe Western promises to support Armenia’s security, while Russia offered practical benefits. “We get gas from Russia at $177. Who else has such terms? Without that, we would have to pay more,” she said.

The party appears unlikely to secure a two-thirds constitutional majority—which could complicate peace with Azerbaijan. The two sides, which have fought two wars, initialed a document in Washington last year, but Baku is demanding the removal from Armenia’s constitution of an indirect reference to Nagorno-Karabakh, which would require a referendum. Without two thirds, holding such a vote will be difficult for Pashinyan, potentially slowing a process that is supposed to open borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey and accelerate growth.

Analysts nevertheless see the results as confirmation of the peace course. “Despite a stronger-than-expected opposition showing, this election was a convincing victory for the government and an endorsement of the policy of normalizing relations with neighbors,” said Richard Giragosian of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center.

Pashinyan, a former journalist who came to power in 2018 on the wave of the Velvet Revolution, has also faced criticism from parts of civil society: his government has been accused of pressuring opponents—particularly after the arrest of six candidates from Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia party a day before the vote.