Ukraine is trying to anchor its future airpower in a radical overhaul of the Air Force, aiming to acquire up to 200 modern Western fighter jets—French Rafales and Swedish Gripens. But, as noted by Politico, this ambition runs into three major obstacles: a lack of funding, Europe’s limited production capacity, and global backlogs for new aircraft.
Against the backdrop of war and tightening resources, Kyiv wants to signal a long-term strategy, yet the reality imposes far stricter constraints.
Ukraine’s plan to build a sizeable, modern air force around French and Swedish jets faces substantial hurdles. On Monday, November 17, Volodymyr Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron signed a letter of intent outlining a possible purchase of up to 100 twin-engine Rafales produced by Dassault over the next decade. The announcement came just weeks after Kyiv reached an agreement with Sweden that includes the purchase of 100–150 single-engine Gripen E jets manufactured by Saab.
Although both agreements—still not formal contracts—signal Europe’s long-term support and sketch out the future shape of Ukraine’s air capabilities, the country must still overcome major financial, logistical, and industrial challenges.
Ukraine’s Air Force still relies heavily on Soviet-era MiG-29s, Su-25s, and Su-27s, while also operating Lockheed Martin F-16s and a limited number of French Mirage 2000-5s. If Kyiv succeeds in assembling a fleet of more than 200 new Western fighters, it will have to manage a mixed aircraft inventory—an approach many Western states avoid because of its logistical complexity and the need for a significant expansion of pilot and technician training programs.
Operating multiple fighter types is challenging because “spare parts are not interchangeable, there is no economy of scale, and the number of supply chains and training courses for mechanics inevitably increases,” said Elie Tenenbaum, director of the security studies center at IFRI in Paris. At the same time, he added, such a structure makes far more sense when it involves a fleet of around 100 aircraft of a single type—precisely the scenario Ukraine hopes to achieve.
The main issue, Tenenbaum stressed, is that a Rafale partnership “will take a long time and cannot serve as an answer to urgent battlefield needs.”
Financial Deadlock and Reliance on Frozen Assets
For Ukraine, the ambition to build a mixed fleet of French and Swedish multirole fighters is bound to trigger severe financial difficulties. The country is approaching an acute funding shortfall, and it remains unclear what resources could cover such purchases without external support.
“Ukraine’s plans to buy Rafales in addition to Gripens look rather unexpected,” said a senior European diplomat. “They do not have that kind of money. Much will depend on the frozen Russian assets.”
Precise figures are difficult to establish: aircraft prices vary significantly depending on weapons packages and training. A Rafale is valued at between €70 million and €100 million without missiles, but a fully equipped version can reach €250 million. The unit cost of a Gripen is about €125 million.
Many in the European Union argue that roughly €140 billion in frozen Russian assets should be used for Ukraine’s benefit, yet EU members have not reached a unified decision.
Sweden is looking for ways to finance the delivery of Gripens. Earlier this month, Defence Minister Pal Jonson told Reuters that Stockholm could partly cover the purchase through military assistance. A major deal, he said, could also push countries supplying components for these aircraft to join the financing effort.
France’s strained public finances rule out allocating national funds to purchase Rafales for Ukraine. Paris also has no intention of diverting aircraft from its own arsenal or giving Kyiv priority over other customers. At the same time, Dassault Aviation is considering raising production to five aircraft per month.
Macron expects European mechanisms and frozen assets to serve as the main source of financing for future purchases. “Funding will come together with this agreement,” he told reporters, citing the EU’s €150 billion SAFE initiative, which provides loans for armaments, as well as a G7 mechanism that allows Ukraine to receive loans backed by interest generated from Russian assets.
Production Constraints and the Queue for Western Fighters
Another challenge lies in the production capacity of Western fighter-jet manufacturers and their already heavy order books.
“Even if we had all the money we need, getting the aircraft quickly would still be impossible. There simply isn’t enough global supply,” a Ukrainian military official told Politico on condition of anonymity. “Just look at how many countries are waiting for Rafales. And I doubt anyone will be allowed to move Ukraine to the front of the line.”
Saab is already exploring ways to accelerate Gripen deliveries. Last week, the company’s CEO Mikael Johansson told Canada’s The Globe and Mail that he is in talks with the Canadian government and Bombardier about licensed production of the Gripen. According to him, Canadian facilities could simultaneously meet the needs of Canada’s Air Force and supply aircraft for Ukraine.
But even once the aircraft arrive, the costs will not end there.
“Given the current economic difficulties, it will be far too expensive for Ukraine to maintain such a large fleet on its own,” said aviation expert and former Ukrainian Air Force officer Anatolii Khrapchynskyi. “But if Ukraine joins NATO or builds a defense alliance within Europe, then a shared defense budget could help sustain a fleet of this size.”
Overall, operating a mixed fleet does create complications, yet according to a Ukrainian military representative, it is safer for Ukraine to diversify suppliers than to wait for a single aircraft type. “Why did Ukraine’s Air Force opt for several different models? The answer is simple: it is far too risky to put all the eggs in one basket.”