A New Shutdown on January 30?

The longest shutdown in US history has ended, but another halt to federal operations may be approaching. Democrats are angered that the bipartisan Senate deal which reopened the government after 43 days of paralysis left untouched the extension of ObamaCare insurance subsidies—their central demand throughout the standoff.

Now, with funding for a large share of federal agencies set to lapse again on January 30, an increasing number of liberal Democrats in Congress are urging colleagues to use that deadline to pressure Republicans into extending the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits—even if it risks another impasse and a renewed shutdown.

“I think this time we have to hold the line—there is no alternative,” said Representative Juan Vargas (D-California). “If we fail to help people with their health insurance, many will be left without coverage, fall ill and die. Or costs for everyone else will soar.” He added: “We have to do it. And I hope senators show more resolve this time.”

That view is shared by Representative Mark Takano (D-California): “This issue hasn’t gone away. The pressure on Republicans to address the health-care problem remains.”

Republicans likewise assume that the fight over ACA tax credits will inevitably escalate and could once again bring the government to a halt. “Everyone understands that under current law the next shutdown could come on January 30,” said Representative Andy Harris (R-Maryland), who leads the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus. He said he is pushing for a provision that would automatically extend funding in two-week increments if budget negotiations drag on. “I hope we take a serious look at that option,” he noted.

The early political maneuvering reflects frustration within the Democratic Party: some senators voted for the compromise that allowed federal agencies to resume work without extracting any Republican concessions on ACA subsidies. Those benefits were created with the passage of ObamaCare in 2010, then expanded by the Biden administration in 2021–2022 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is these expanded benefits that Democrats are now trying to extend beyond January 1, when they are set to expire. Without congressional action, more than 20 million Americans will face higher insurance premiums and other medical costs.

Republican leaders, who for years have sought to repeal ObamaCare entirely, show little interest in sustaining a law they have consistently attacked. With that in mind, some Democrats view the January 30 deadline as a new source of leverage: they intend to block any spending bills that fail to address the subsidy issue—the same dynamic that triggered the October 1 shutdown.

Representative Judy Chu (D-California) considers this approach self-evident: “This is crucial to the future of Americans. We are talking about 24 million people who risk seeing their premiums double or even triple.”

Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut), the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, is convinced that Republicans’ long-standing stance on the ACA makes another January confrontation all but inevitable. “It looks like we’re headed for another round of fighting over the ACA,” she said.

The Democrats’ strategy faltered this month when eight senators joined Republicans in voting to reopen the government without resolving the subsidy issue. And it is the senators—not House Democrats—who will determine whether the country slides into another shutdown.

Even so, Democrats believe their hand will be stronger in January: by then, most ACA participants will already feel the impact of higher premiums, and some will have dropped their coverage altogether. “By that point it will be a reality,” Chu said. “And the outrage will only grow, because people will have already decided whether to stay insured or give it up.”

Any congressional decision on subsidies runs into timing constraints. The ACA’s open enrollment period began on November 1 and ends on December 15 for those seeking coverage starting January 1. (For coverage beginning February 1, the window remains open until January 15.) This means that those who forgo a policy because of higher costs may find themselves uninsured for the entirety of 2026.

Democrats argue there is a straightforward remedy: amend the law and reopen the enrollment period under the current rates. “It will take some work, but there is a path,” Chu said. “And we intend to pursue it.”

Vargas noted that the Trump administration had already altered enrollment timelines, shortening them to nine weeks—a change that will take effect next year. If a president can do that unilaterally, he argued, Congress can adjust the schedule through legislation. “This isn’t a rocket that’s flown off into space, it’s just a law,” Vargas said. “So we should simply change the damn law.”

How Democrats act as January 30 approaches will depend on whether Republicans decide to address the subsidy issue in advance. Despite years of attacks on ObamaCare and conservative pressure to let the benefits lapse, some Republicans are moderates who insist that a sharp rise in medical costs would hit their own constituents hardest.

Many of these moderates are heading into difficult elections next year and warn that the GOP risks losing ground if millions of Americans face higher insurance premiums. “Republicans need to address health care. We cannot just let ObamaCare fade away without taking action—people will end up uninsured or paying twice as much,” said Representative Jeff Van Drew (R-New Jersey) on Fox News. “It’s wrong, it’s inefficient, and it will be politically devastating for us.”

Representative Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia) has introduced a bill to extend the tax credits for one year—backed by 14 other moderate Republicans, almost all of whom represent competitive districts. And Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pennsylvania), co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, sent a letter to Senate leaders—John Thune (R-North Dakota) and Chuck Schumer (D-New York)—urging them to immediately begin crafting a solution acceptable to both parties. “Time is running out. Our sense of urgency could not be higher. Our willingness to cooperate knows no bounds,” Fitzpatrick wrote just hours after the shutdown ended. “We urge you to work with us on a bipartisan measure that can pass both chambers and become law, to help those who need it most.”

Some Democrats believe that the only way to avoid a January shutdown is if moderate Republicans such as Fitzpatrick can persuade John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) to support extending the subsidies despite conservative objections. “It all comes down to those vulnerable House Republicans who cannot return to their constituents without a health-care solution,” said Representative Pramila Jayapal (D-Washington).

Meanwhile, tensions between the parties over social-support programs remain high. Over the summer, Republicans passed legislation they branded the ‘big, beautiful bill’, which would have sharply reduced benefits for low-income Americans—including Medicaid and food stamps.

As the January budget talks approach, many Democrats doubt that Republicans are prepared to honor any commitments related to ObamaCare. “When January 30 comes, we’ll see whether they’ve made any progress,” DeLauro said. “Johnson has said he can’t guarantee a vote in the House. The Senate says it will happen. Do I trust them? No, for heaven’s sake. No.”