The NABU investigation targeting President Volodymyr Zelensky’s inner circle has become a turning point in Ukrainian politics. For the first time during his presidency, the main threat to his power comes not from war or external crises, but from within—from institutions created with Western support that now act with growing independence.
The conflict between the president’s office on Bankova Street and Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies goes far beyond a single case: it determines who ultimately controls the key levers of power in Ukraine—the president or the institutions backed by Europe.
The searches conducted by NABU at the homes of Zelensky’s close associate Tymur Myndych, as part of a corruption probe in the energy sector, signaled rising political tension in Kyiv. Myndych managed to leave the country, but the case implicates senior officials, including the leadership of Energoatom and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko. NABU claims to possess over a thousand hours of recordings—known as the “Myndych tapes”—which allegedly capture conversations involving the president himself.
In the spring, an informal coalition critical of Zelensky began to take shape in Ukraine. It included representatives of NABU and SAP, as well as figures connected to Western grant networks and the opposition. After Donald Trump’s election victory, these influence networks—previously supported by U.S. Democrats—lost their political cover. For Zelensky, this became an opportunity to weaken independent power centers. However, his attempt to curb the powers of anti-corruption bodies provoked a sharp reaction from Europe. Brussels demanded that the independence of NABU and SAP be restored, while protests broke out in Kyiv.
As a result, the president was forced to back down. His political standing weakened, and control over key institutions became subject to external pressure. In its latest report, the European Commission emphasized that maintaining the independence of anti-corruption agencies is one of the conditions for opening EU membership talks. For Zelensky, meeting these requirements would mean losing a significant share of his influence.
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By late summer, the President’s Office began preparing a counterstrategy. Its central figure was MP Fedir Khrystenko, whom the SBU accused of having ties to Russian intelligence services. According to sources, he was expected to provide testimony suggesting that NABU’s investigations were carried out under Moscow’s direction. However, officials in Kyiv ultimately decided not to release the materials, fearing a new wave of criticism from the EU and Western media.
Meanwhile, the “anti-Zelensky coalition” went on the offensive. Ukrainian and international outlets began publishing reports accusing the president’s entourage of corruption, after which NABU announced a formal investigation into the energy sector. The searches targeting Myndych marked the culmination of this process.
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Zelensky now faces a choice: to try to reassert control by increasing pressure on NABU and SAP, or to accept their growing independence. The first option risks confrontation with European partners; the second, a loss of influence at home. Ukrainian political circles believe the outcome of this struggle will determine not only Zelensky’s political future but also the balance of power between the president, parliament, and external donors.