Parliamentary Elections in Moldova Promise an Unpredictable Outcome

The September 28 vote will set the republic’s political trajectory for the coming years. If President Maia Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) manages to form a parliamentary coalition, control of the political system will remain in her hands. An opposition victory would mean losing influence over parliament and government, significantly weakening her position.

Opinion polls suggest that PAS is unlikely to secure a majority on its own. Four forces are expected to enter parliament: PAS, Igor Dodon’s Patriotic Bloc, Renato Usatîi’s Our Party, and the Alternative bloc led by Chișinău mayor Ion Ceban and presidential candidate Alexandru Stoianoglo. PAS and the Patriotic Bloc consistently hold the top two spots, but their order varies across surveys. A few percentage points could prove decisive in shaping a coalition.

Another factor is the potential for alliances. PAS adheres to a pro-European line, supports Ukraine, and criticizes Russia. The Patriotic Bloc advocates neutrality, closer ties with Moscow, and dialogue with Transnistria. Our Party uses Euroskeptic rhetoric, though opponents suspect it of quiet alignment with Sandu. Alternative declares a pro-European orientation, yet within PAS it is seen as a potential partner for Dodon. The most plausible scenarios are a PAS–Usatîi alliance or a Dodon–Alternative bloc. Other combinations are possible, with the sole exception of a direct alliance between PAS and the Patriotic Bloc. This fragile balance raises the likelihood of disputes over the results and the risk of a political crisis.

In the 2024 presidential election, the diaspora vote proved decisive: inside the country Sandu won 49% to Stoianoglo’s 51%, but 82% of the overseas vote secured her a second-round victory. Now, according to Western media, the opposition and Moscow are also trying to work more actively with the diaspora. Plans are reportedly being discussed to transport Moldovan citizens living in Russia to polling stations in third countries, since their number is limited within Russia itself. This adds to the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.

The results could influence the war in Ukraine. Sandu has warned that an opposition victory would create a “pro-Russian majority” in parliament and shift the country’s foreign policy course. She cautioned that Moscow could use this to attempt destabilization, including possible interference through Transnistria. Similar concerns have been voiced by Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser in the Ukrainian president’s office.

At the same time, the prospect of direct Russian intervention appears unlikely: Moldova lies between Romania and Ukraine, making the deployment of Russian troops there virtually impossible. Claims of an “attack on Ukraine from Moldova” or of the country’s “occupation by European forces” remain rhetorical, with no evidence to support them. Western governments likewise avoid steps that could trigger a direct NATO–Russia confrontation.

A flare-up around Transnistria looks more plausible. Two obstacles currently stand in the way: Sandu’s reluctance to be drawn into conflict on the eve of elections, and the limited capacity of Ukraine’s army, whose main front leaves Kyiv unable to allocate resources to the Transnistrian direction. Yet if the battlefield situation shifts and Europe provides support, the question of a military operation against the unrecognized republic could return to the agenda.

If Sandu retains control of parliament, the likelihood of debating a military option will rise. If Dodon’s bloc secures a majority, the country will most likely adopt a policy of neutrality toward the war in Ukraine.

In this sense, the upcoming parliamentary elections go beyond domestic politics. Their outcome could reshape the regional balance of power and affect the course of the war in Ukraine. The high stakes explain the heightened tension in Chișinău, Moscow, and European capitals.