For three years now, a cargo ship flying a foreign flag has remained motionless in the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv. It arrived to pick up a shipment of sunflower oil—just one day before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, 28 similar foreign vessels have been stranded there, held hostage by the Kremlin's complex geopolitical game. U.S. President Donald Trump says he hopes to quickly bring an end to what he has called a "horrible" war in Ukraine.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin, however, seems more interested in prolonging the conflict than ending it. On March 25, the U.S. administration announced a supposed ceasefire in the Black Sea, reportedly agreed upon by both sides. But hostilities have continued, and the Kremlin's promises have gradually faded. On April 18, Trump stated he might abandon efforts to achieve peace if no progress is made soon. The culmination of Russia's insincerity came on April 19, when Moscow declared a 30-hour Easter ceasefire.
Russia's approach to Black Sea security has long been marked by ambiguity. In March, the White House claimed to have reached an agreement with Moscow on mutual restraint and the safe passage of ships. But the Russian side clarified that such an arrangement would only be possible if sanctions were eased. Ukraine, meanwhile, demanded a full withdrawal of Russian vessels from the western part of the sea. As a result, Ukrainian ports have stopped coming under direct attack—but the cities where they are located continue to be shelled.
Until July 2023, a grain deal was in place that allowed Ukraine to export agricultural products from the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi. When Russia refused to extend the agreement, Ukraine opened an alternative shipping corridor. Despite its limited naval capacity, Ukraine managed to push Russian vessels out of the western part of the sea, turning it into a dangerous gray zone where large military ships now hesitate to enter. Although monitoring systems show little visible civilian traffic in the area, cargo shipments continue with radar transponders turned off. According to Ukrainian official Yuriy Vaskov, ports in the Odesa region are currently operating at about 60% capacity—down from 90% during last year’s harvest season. In total, Ukraine’s Black Sea ports handled over 9,000 commercial vessels last year.
Odesa and Mykolaiv in Southern Ukraine
But Mykolaiv, once a key export hub, remains at a disadvantage. Cargo flows have shifted to the ports of neighboring Odesa region, depriving Mykolaiv of a significant portion of its revenue. The head of the regional military administration, Vitaliy Kim, confirms that before the war, the port employed around 10,000 people and generated half of the city's income. Russia is now trying to use the reopening of Mykolaiv’s port as a political lever, bargaining for broader concessions.
Grain being loaded onto a ship in the port of Mykolaiv.
Mykolaiv has become one of the symbols of Ukrainian resistance in the south, where the Russian army was stopped in 2022. The city stands on the banks of the Southern Bug River, which connects with the Dnipro to form a strategically important estuary, shielded from the sea by the Kinburn Spit. In Ochakiv, located at the mouth of the estuary, shelling by Russian forces holding the spit continues unabated. According to Ochakiv mayor Serhiy Bychkov, constant attacks—including drone strikes—have forced half of the city’s 15,000 residents to flee.
The waters around Ochakiv and Mykolaiv remain mined. The number of sea mines is unknown, especially after new munitions were washed into the area in the summer of 2023 following Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. Although Ukraine has received minesweepers from the UK, the Netherlands, and Belgium, the Montreux Convention prohibits their passage through the Bosphorus during wartime.
In April 2024, Turkey hosted negotiations with Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and France about a potential peacekeeping mission in the Black Sea following a peace agreement. However, according to Odesa-based expert Hanna Shelest, the Kremlin has no intention of honoring any agreements. Putin is not interested in a lasting peace, but in managed chaos and instability—just as is currently unfolding in the Black Sea.