The most likely outcome for Ukraine at the end of the war is becoming what analysts describe as a “Finnish scenario.” That conclusion was reached by JPMorgan’s Center for Geopolitics in a new forecast on the future course of the conflict.
According to the bank’s baseline scenario, the war would end through negotiations under which Ukraine would lose part of its territory but retain state sovereignty, armed forces—possibly with certain restrictions—as well as democratic institutions and its path toward European integration.
The report also stresses that several factors could significantly alter the trajectory of events, many of which analysts view as unfavorable for Kyiv.
One of the key risks identified by JPMorgan is the war surrounding Iran. According to the bank, the conflict is simultaneously depleting Western weapons stockpiles while driving up global energy prices, increasing Russia’s revenue from oil and gas exports.
Analysts also view the possibility of increased pressure from Donald Trump on the Ukrainian government as another major factor—particularly if Washington seeks to push Kyiv toward accepting settlement terms negotiated between the United States and Russia.