For years, Israel could count on Europe’s support as a given—even amid mounting criticism of the occupation and military actions. But the devastation in Gaza, the violence in the West Bank, and Tel Aviv’s open disregard for Europe’s stance have triggered a notable shift. Today, the EU is considering not just symbolic condemnations but concrete sanctions, including a review of trade preferences and a suspension of scientific cooperation. This does not mark an immediate rupture—but it signals the beginning of a phase in which geography and economics may once again carry political weight.
Washington as the Anchor. Europe as the Ignored Partner
In Israel, a growing sense has taken hold that only Washington truly matters. The United States supplies weapons, guarantees the protection of the world’s most powerful military, and provides diplomatic cover in forums like the UN.
Yet economically, Israel is far more intertwined with Europe: the EU accounts for a third of its total foreign trade, Europe is the primary destination for Israeli tourists, and the Horizon fund finances Israeli research to the tune of billions of euros.
"Geography doesn’t change," a Western diplomat reminded. "With no regional allies apart from the UAE, Europe remains the main channel. And the U.S. will always be 8,000 kilometers away."
Even so, Europe has failed to translate that into political influence. The reason is its internal divisions: Germany and Austria are restrained by history, while Hungary aligns ideologically with Israel.
"To have influence, you have to be willing to use it," noted former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. "If you can live in an illegal settlement, travel to Europe and trade with it, why should condemnation matter?"
When France, the UK, and Canada threatened a response over actions in Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed it as support for Hamas. For a long time, such disdain for criticism seemed justified—ties with Europe were seen as a given.
Javier Solana, during his tenure as EU foreign policy chief, once called Israel an unofficial member of the Union, more integrated than Croatia at the time of its candidacy.
"Politically, we’re an afterthought," admitted one European diplomat.
Public Pressure and the First Steps Toward a Response
As destruction in Gaza mounts and violence in the West Bank escalates, public reaction and political calculations inside the EU have shifted. The United Kingdom has sanctioned two Israeli ministers, France is debating recognition of a Palestinian state, and the EU has approved sanctions on radical settlers.
The biggest change is economic. The Netherlands—once a close Israeli ally—has demanded a review of human-rights compliance, a cornerstone of the EU–Israel Association Agreement. Seventeen member states have backed the Dutch initiative. Under Article 2 of the agreement, respect for human rights is a "fundamental element" of the partnership.
The European External Action Service has already found "indications" of violations. The outcome of the debate will be known after Kaja Kallas delivers her report to foreign ministers.
The report contains no explicit call for sanctions, and similar findings have appeared before. This time, however, pressure is coming not only from above but from below: most Europeans want policy to reflect their values.
Even in Germany, three-quarters of citizens—across the political spectrum—support suspending arms exports to Israel. "We are losing our principal lever—our commitment to values—because of our own inconsistency," says Borrell.
The Limits of the Possible and the Levers of Pressure
The Association Agreement cannot be suspended in full without unanimous support from all EU members, an unlikely prospect. Individual provisions, however, can be frozen with a qualified-majority vote.
Any sanctions would require the backing of Ursula von der Leyen. The Commission sets the agenda and tables proposals for the Council. She has condemned strikes on civilians and the "disproportionate use of force", yet she has not endorsed sanctions.
Meanwhile, several EU states are calling for tougher action: scrapping Israel's tariff-free access, limiting Israeli universities' participation in research programmes and even halting visa-free travel.
The EU wields economic clout: trade with Israel is asymmetric, and the country ranks only 31st among the bloc's partners, behind Algeria. Europe could therefore inflict damage on Israel at minimal cost to itself.
Diplomats hope that targeted measures—such as ending visa-free travel—will resonate with Israeli public opinion. "There is hope that change will start within Israeli society itself," says one official, pointing to protests over Gaza casualties. "People do not want isolation."