The War in Iran Has Hit Global Commodity Prices Harder Than Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank Says

Global commodity prices may reach their highest level since 2022 this year—the impact of the war in Iran has proved more significant than the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports, citing a World Bank report.

According to the forecast, the commodity price index will rise by about 16% by the end of the year.

“War strikes the global economy in waves: first through higher energy prices, then through higher food prices, and finally through broader inflation,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist.

Energy prices are expected to rise by about 24%, with the baseline scenario assuming that the sharpest supply disruptions will end as early as May. The average price of Brent crude in 2025 is forecast at $86 a barrel—well above the January estimate of $60.

The World Bank also expects fertiliser prices to rise by 31% year on year. Their cost is directly tied to energy prices, since fertiliser production depends on natural gas and petroleum products.

The War in Iran Has Hit Global Commodity Prices Harder Than Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank Says

The Price Index Will Rise 16% in a Year, Fertilizers Will Become a Third More Expensive, and Brent Crude Will Average $86 a Barrel