A new potential inflation threat is emerging from the Strait of Hormuz to America’s agricultural regions—the consequences of the current war with Iran could ripple through food supply chains and grocery prices in the coming months.
The political stakes are sensitive: the conflict could once again trigger the kind of inflation voters feel most directly—rising food prices—just as the United States enters the active phase of campaigning ahead of the midterm elections.
The situation recalls the recent episode of food inflation driven, among other factors, by a surge in commodity prices after Russia’s war against Ukraine began. Now the risk of a similar chain reaction is taking shape.
The Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery of global energy and raw materials trade—has effectively been blocked due to the fighting. Around one-fifth of global oil supplies pass through it, along with roughly 25–35% of the materials used to produce fertilizers, according to Morningstar.
The disruption has already pushed up prices for oil and fertilizers. That, in turn, could curb agricultural production and drive up the cost of groceries and restaurant meals.
In a letter to President Donald Trump, the American Farm Bureau Federation warned that “supply chain shocks are likely to drive already record-high input costs even higher.”
Farmers fear disruptions in supplies of key materials—such as urea, ammonia, nitrogen, phosphates, and sulfur-based products. Shortages could emerge just ahead of the spring planting season—the most critical period of the agricultural year.
“This risk is not hypothetical,” Angela Huffman, president of the agricultural watchdog group Farm Action, wrote in a letter to Trump. “With renewed geopolitical instability affecting fertilizer supplies, there is a real possibility of the previous scenario repeating itself.”
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the Persian Gulf states now under threat from the war produce nearly 49% of the world’s supply of urea—the key solid nitrogen fertilizer—and about 30% of ammonia.
The United States, meanwhile, relies on imports for roughly 97% of its potash supply, while about 18% of its nitrogen and 13% of its phosphates also come from abroad.
“For farmers, fertilizer is not a matter of choice but a critical resource that determines crop yields and, ultimately, the food supply for Americans,” federation president Zippy Duvall said during a conference call.
“This is not only a farmers’ problem—it concerns the food security and the broader economy of the entire country,” he added. “When farmers face supply shortages or rising prices, the consequences ripple across the entire food chain.”
A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the Trump administration “supports farmers through unprecedented access to international markets, tax reductions, and a strengthened agricultural insurance system.”
“President Trump is using every available tool to ensure farmers have the resources they need to continue operating—emphasizing that the long-term benefits will far outweigh any short-term disruptions.”
The broader economic context is also shifting under the pressure of the war. Although the consumer price index published on Wednesday showed relatively moderate inflation, the data reflect conditions before the conflict began.
Since then, a sharp rise in energy prices and an unexpectedly weak labor market report have intensified concerns that the economy could face a scenario of “stagflation”—a combination of slowing growth and a renewed wave of inflation.
Rising food prices would be particularly visible in such a scenario—especially given that the surge in food costs in 2021 and 2022 seriously undermined President Joe Biden’s economic standing.
Increases in fuel prices have traditionally provoked strong voter frustration. A simultaneous rise in pressure from both farmers and grocery shoppers could prove especially politically dangerous for those in power.