In Tehran, preparations are underway for a new U.S.-Israeli missile strike following reports that the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has redeployed key assets to the region, observers say. In Washington, it is widely believed that the United States, in combination with Israeli air power, has sufficient capability to carry out an attack aimed at toppling a leadership accused of brutally suppressing protests and causing the deaths of thousands of Iranians.
U.S. forces, including several guided-missile destroyers, have not yet taken up final positions but are already within striking distance of Iran. There is, however, no certainty that renewed U.S. strikes would reignite street protests. Many Iranians who oppose the clerical leadership that has been in power since 1979 simultaneously reject an externally imposed regime-change scenario.
Against the backdrop of an absence of any signs of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough, Iran’s stock market posted a record one-day drop on Monday. Regional powers, including the United Arab Emirates, said they would not allow their airspace or territorial waters to be used for an attack on Iran. The presence of the carrier group in the Mediterranean, however, means that consent from many third countries would not be required for a strike. Over the weekend, the U.S. military reported conducting exercises in the region “to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat aircraft.”
The potential operation, analysts say, would not be aimed at further weakening Iran’s already devastated nuclear program, which was the primary target of the 12-day war in June. The focus is instead on striking the political leadership and attempting to push back onto the streets protesters angered by a falling standard of living. According to official data, inflation reached 60% over the past month.
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the United States is seeking to undermine the country’s social cohesion ahead of a possible attack. In his words, Donald Trump’s attempt to portray “the country as being in a state of emergency is itself a form of war, and that is precisely what the enemies want. The rioters constitute an urban group with terrorist characteristics. When they move toward military and police facilities to seize weapons, it signals an intent to provoke a civil war. This time, the U.S. tactic is to first erode social cohesion and only then deliver a military strike.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said at a weekly press conference that reports claiming U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff is in contact with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi over a possible diplomatic deal are false. According to him, Witkoff’s demands have recently expanded to include the return of U.N. weapons inspectors, the removal of all highly enriched uranium from Iran, and curbs on the country’s missile program.
Baghaei added that Iran’s armed forces are “closely monitoring every move” and warned that troop deployments and threats “run counter to the principles of the international system.” He said that “if these principles are violated, instability will affect everyone,” and stressed that “any aggression will be met with a comprehensive and severe response.”
Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, urged the country not to return to the negotiating table. Donald Trump is reported to have refrained from striking Iran two weeks ago amid protests, fearing that he had not been presented with decisive options for removing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or a detailed plan to protect Israel from potential Iranian retaliation. Many Iranians have voiced frustration that Trump has yet to deliver on his promise to come to the protesters’ aid. Within the U.S. administration, divisions persist over whether to pursue de facto regime change in a country of roughly 90 million people.
Estimates of the death toll continue to diverge sharply. One of the most authoritative human rights organizations, the Human Rights Activists agency, said the number of protesters killed has reached 5,419 people, while verification is ongoing for information on a further 17,000 deaths. The U.N. special rapporteur on Iran, Mai Sato, a professor at Birkbeck, University of London, said she could not confirm these figures. According to her, families are being confronted with demands for payments ranging from $5,000 to $7,000 for the return of the bodies of deceased relatives. Iranian authorities deny these allegations. Since January 8, internet access has been restricted, and the communications authority has said that businesses cannot withstand connectivity shutdowns lasting more than 20 days.
In Europe, Italy’s foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, said he intends to recommend that the EU Foreign Affairs Council designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a banned organization across Europe.