The Independent Center argues that the combination of data and artificial intelligence can open a window of opportunity for independent candidates—something American politics has not seen in decades. The organization studies districts, voter sentiment, and the profiles of potential contenders, aiming to send independents to the House of Representatives for the first time in 35 years.
Its strategy relies on a proprietary AI tool that tracks shifts in public attitudes and helps identify people capable of attracting voters disillusioned with both parties. The Independent Center now believes the moment may be right to challenge the United States’ two-party system.
The rise of AI assistants is reshaping daily habits: people upload medical tests to chatbots, discuss personal relationships with ChatGPT, and rely on algorithms for everything from travel planning to homework.
Now, one organization argues that artificial intelligence can do more than simplify everyday tasks—it can alter the political landscape of the United States.
“Without AI, what we’re trying to do would be impossible,” said Adam Brandon, senior adviser at the Independent Center, a nonprofit focused on studying and engaging independent voters.
Their goal is to secure the election of several independent candidates to the House of Representatives in 2026, using AI to pinpoint districts with the highest potential and to identify “undiscovered talent” capable of mounting a viable campaign.
Given the current fragile balance of power in Congress, even a handful of seats won by independents could deprive either party of a majority and alter how the House operates.
For the American political system, it is an ambitious proposition: no independent candidate has won a House race in 35 years.
Yet data show a steady rise in the number of moderate and independent voters. According to Gallup, a record 43% of Americans identified as independents in 2024. Exit polls that same year found that 34% of voters saw themselves as independent, compared with 26% in 2020.
“There is a huge group of people who, for various reasons, cannot embrace either of the two parties,” said David Barker, a political science professor at American University. “For the first time in a long while, a relative plurality of Americans calls itself independent, and that really does look like a significant shift.”
According to Brandon, it is precisely this shift that makes the moment ripe for challenging the established order.
“It’s like Uber and taxis. There was a system with obvious flaws and entrenched players, and it took a radical innovation to get around it,” he told NPR. “And we feel the same way. People are stuck between ‘Republicans’ and ‘Democrats,’ and we’re saying: there are other options.”
An Attempt to Break the Two-Party Barrier and Find Entry Points for Independents
Any attempt to weaken the two-party system’s monopoly is bound to meet resistance—you have to push against a settled political logic and skepticism from all sides.
Yet the strategists at the Independent Center are far from political novices.
“We’re political brawlers,” said Brandon, who previously led FreedomWorks—a conservative activist group that helped turn the Tea Party movement into a significant political force before shutting down last year. “We’ve assembled a team of people who know how this is done. We’re not easily knocked off course.”
Brandon works closely with Brett Loyd, head of the Bullfinch Group—an independent polling and data firm that oversees research for the Independent Center. Loyd previously served on Donald Trump’s polling team during his presidential campaign.
“I’m a statistician. I joke that I ended up at the Republican National Committee only because they offered me a job before the Democrats did,” he said with a smile. “My work is numbers, sentiment, and game theory. It’s not inherently Republican or Democratic.”
He stresses that the aim of their initiative is not to erase partisanship altogether.
“This won’t work everywhere. It will only work in certain places,” Loyd explained. “If you live in a solidly Republican or solidly Democratic district, you should have a Republican or a Democrat.”
But with the help of AI, he has identified 40 districts that fall outside that pattern—places where, he says, independent candidates could attract voters disillusioned with both parties. The Independent Center plans to field about ten candidates by the spring, aiming to win at least half of those races.
Brandon believes that such victories could prompt moderate members of Congress to switch their political affiliation.
“One Republican told me in his office: ‘I’m too afraid to do it now,’” he recalled. “‘But if you pull this off, I’ll join you.’”
How AI Is Transforming the Search for Electoral Opportunities and the “Ideal” Candidate
Their proprietary AI tool, developed by an external partner, has been in the works for several years.
While focus groups and polls have traditionally been the main way to gauge voter sentiment, AI can track public conversations in real time.
“A poll captures a moment—on Tuesday at 11 a.m. you picked up the phone or showed up to a focus group, that’s how you felt then, but you went home and your opinion changed. We can observe those shifts,” Brandon explained.
The technology is used to identify the issues voters care about most and to locate districts where an independent candidate might have a genuine opening.
“A district that’s 50% Republican and 50% Democratic, where the result swings back and forth depending on who shows up on a given day—is that really an independent district? Or is it, say, an Arizona district where independents form a relative plurality but, holding their noses, vote for one of the parties?” Loyd explained. “We look at turnout data. Where turnout is low because people aren’t motivated to vote.”
He also examines districts with a high share of young voters, who, he says, are more open to the idea of choosing an independent.
“When I talk about Gen Z and millennials, people roll their eyes—as if they’re still ‘kids,’” he said. “But in the next presidential election, those ‘kids’ will make up more than half the electorate.”
The next step is to use the data to shape a profile of the ideal candidate.
The Independent Center searches for potential contenders among those who reach out directly and through its AI system.
They can even run their datasets through LinkedIn to identify people with the right mix of interests, professional background, and volunteer experience.
“Typically, these are not people who promote themselves, but their actions leave a trace,” Loyd said, citing the example of someone who volunteered at an event covered by a local newspaper. “We ask our AI to look for that trace.”
The AI also suggests where a candidate has the strongest chances of winning.
Brandon offers an example: one prospective candidate planned to run in his home district, but the analysis showed that the district next door was a far better fit.
“Thirty minutes away—an ideal match,” he said. “And that’s where that person is going, because we found a perfect alignment.”
The Debate Over “Spoilers” and the Attempt to Rewrite the Rules
Brandon and Loyd acknowledge that perhaps the most common criticism of independent candidates is the accusation that they become “spoilers”—participants who do not win but influence the outcome in favor of one side.
“It’s an outdated, deeply partisan line of argument,” Loyd noted. “And what’s wrong with spoiling something people already don’t like?”
He says criticism of independents largely comes from those invested in preserving the existing model.
“The Republican and Democratic establishments still think in binary terms. It’s either Coca-Cola or Pepsi, Ford or Chevy, MSNBC or Fox News,” he explained. “That logic works for people who watch MSNBC and Fox News. But everyone else? We no longer live in such a black-and-white world.”
Brandon argues that the best response is to embrace the label.
“We’re willing to be spoilers because what we’re spoiling is a system that’s already deeply corrupted,” he said.