Global Oil Inventories Are Shrinking at a Record Pace Because of the Crisis Around Iran

According to the IEA, global inventories of crude oil and refined products declined by nearly 4 million barrels per day in April—more than the combined consumption of the United Kingdom and Germany. The agency warned that the rapid depletion of reserves is weakening countries’ ability to cushion the impact of supply disruptions.

“The world is drawing oil inventories at a record pace as importing countries confront unprecedented disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies,” the report said.

The IEA believes that the continuing decline in reserves amid persistent instability could trigger new price spikes in the coming months.

The agency’s warning has intensified concerns that inventories of certain fuel products could fall to critically low levels as early as this summer, forcing consumers to compete for limited available supplies.

Since the start of the conflict, global oil reserves have declined by roughly 250 million barrels. At the same time, the IEA notes that the losses would have been even greater if not for the volumes of oil still stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the effective paralysis of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The agency says part of the losses has been offset by weaker demand, including in advanced economies.

In Europe, oil consumption is projected by the IEA to decline by 140,000 barrels per day this year—the steepest drop since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The forecast is based on the assumption that the conflict surrounding Iran will end by early June. If hostilities continue longer, the decline in European demand could become even more severe.

Nearly all oil-importing countries have been affected by the near-total shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about one-fifth of global oil supplies. The threat posed by Iran to commercial shipping has now persisted for more than ten weeks.

The IEA describes the reduction in Middle Eastern supplies as the largest oil shock in history. Fuel consumption has declined across many countries, particularly in Asia, which traditionally receives the bulk of Middle Eastern oil exports.

Aviation fuel is emerging as one of the most constrained petroleum products in Europe. In 2025, around 60 percent of jet fuel supplies to Europe came from the Middle East.

According to the agency, net imports of aviation fuel fell by nearly 100,000 barrels per day in April compared with a year earlier. As a result, inventories in the key Amsterdam—Rotterdam—Antwerp hub dropped below the average levels of the past five years.

The shortfall is being partially offset by supplies from North America. The IEA noted that U.S. diesel exports rose by 430,000 barrels per day compared with last year, with around 80 percent of those volumes directed to Europe.