German military planners warn that a recent wave of cyberattacks, acts of sabotage, and disinformation campaigns may not be isolated incidents but the opening phase of a new armed conflict. That assessment is set out in a confidential government document seen by Politico.
The assessment is contained in Germany’s Operational Defence Plan (OPLAN)—a document that defines how Berlin would organise the defence of national territory in the event of a large-scale NATO conflict. The planning reflects a broader shift in German defence policy: against the backdrop of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago and Russia’s growing aggressiveness toward European allies, Germany has assumed a central role in the logistics and planning of NATO force deployment and reinforcement.
The document notes that hybrid measures “can, in a fundamental sense, serve to prepare a military confrontation.” Cyber operations and influence campaigns are treated not as background pressure but as elements embedded in the logic of military escalation.
That assumption carries practical consequences for how Germany plans its contribution to a potential conflict. The text portrays the country as an operational base and transit corridor for NATO forces that would come under pressure at an early stage, above all because of Germany’s role as a key hub for the movement and sustainment of allied troops.
The 24-page document is designated as a so-called light version of the plan and is intended to coordinate civilian and military structures in defining Germany’s role as a transit hub for allied forces.
In the event of a conflict, the document states, Germany would become a “priority target for conventional strikes using long-range weapons systems,” aimed at both military and civilian infrastructure.
OPLAN outlines a five-phase escalation model—from early threat detection and deterrence to national defence, NATO collective defence, and post-war recovery. The document stresses that Germany is currently in the first phase, focused on building a shared understanding of threats, interagency coordination, and the preparation of logistical and protective measures.
The plan also significantly expands the role of domestic military formations. Territorial defence units are tasked with protecting critical infrastructure, ensuring the security of troop movements across German territory, and maintaining the functioning of state institutions while combat forces are deployed beyond the country’s borders.
Civilian structures are treated in the document as an indispensable condition for military success. Transport networks, energy supply, the healthcare system, and private contractors are repeatedly cited as critical elements without which the plan cannot be implemented. The text states explicitly that “numerous tasks require civilian support,” without which the execution of OPLAN would not be possible.
In recent months, Germany and its allies have faced a succession of hybrid attacks that in many respects mirror the scenarios described in the operational plan. Federal authorities have recorded an increase in Russian intelligence activity, cyberattacks, and influence campaigns targeting political institutions, critical infrastructure, and public opinion. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt described the situation by saying that the country is a “daily target of hybrid warfare.”