Falling Living Standards Boost Support for the Far Right

On both sides of the Atlantic, growing frustration and fatigue with the existing order have paved the way for the success of anti-establishment—and often far-right—political movements. Among them are Donald Trump’s movement in the United States, France’s National Rally, and Germany’s Alternative for Germany party.

Social protection programs that once unified societies have increasingly become sources of division and stigma. Anti-immigrant parties exploit debates over benefits for foreigners; others channel resentment over aid received by minorities. In the United Kingdom, activists express outrage over government efforts to temporarily house asylum seekers, while in the United States, Republicans mislead the public by claiming that the federal government shutdown was caused by Democrats’ alleged push to provide free healthcare to undocumented migrants.

“Far-right populists are attracting a growing number of voters by combining anti-elite rhetoric with a ‘us-versus-them’ logic, portraying themselves as defenders of the ‘in-group’ against an external threat,” wrote De Schutter, the Belgian jurist, in the report. “Such a message particularly resonates with those who fear losing their status and feel threatened by cultural and economic change.”

Against the backdrop of rising inequality and economic instability, De Schutter argues that now is precisely the time to expand social spending. “One of the most damaging myths of recent years has been the belief that social protection is too expensive and therefore should be narrowly targeted—only to those who have ‘earned’ assistance,” he said.

Yet even Europe’s renowned welfare systems are undergoing a crisis. In November last year, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that social benefits and support programs would come under threat if the continent’s largest economies failed to overcome stagnation. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has only deepened European leaders’ anxiety, pushing them to increase defense spending—potentially at the expense of the social models that for decades underpinned stability and prosperity after World War II.

A sense of systemic crisis, once typical of Europe’s periphery, is now felt at its core. In August, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that the country’s welfare system was no longer sustainable and needed reform. “We simply can no longer afford the current system,” he said. “It will require painful decisions. These will be cuts.”

In France, efforts to reform the pension system have sparked a political crisis that cost several prime ministers their positions and now threatens Emmanuel Macron’s legacy. Public debt is rising, incomes are stagnating, the country’s credit rating is falling, and a younger generation is realizing it will live worse than its parents. “As in other Western nations, globalization has dealt a blow to France’s industrial base, turning some regions into ‘rust belts,’” my colleagues wrote. “Unlike the United States, which offset its losses through growth in services and technology, France has faced an aging population and mounting pension obligations: in 2023, social protection accounted for 31.5% of GDP—the highest share in Europe.”

“There is a growing realization that the system will have to become less generous—and many people deeply resent that,” Willem Adema, senior economist at the OECD, told the publication.

De Schutter, the UN independent expert, insists on the opposite. “Social protection is neither a luxury nor an indulgence to be discarded in times of crisis,” he stressed.

According to him, the universality of social programs was the source of their strength. In the twentieth century, they not only reduced inequality but also reinforced social cohesion, fostering a sense of belonging and shared future. “That was the spirit on which the welfare state was built,” De Schutter said, “but it has now been lost—and must be revived.”

“The cultural drivers of the far-right—xenophobia, hostility toward others—stem from a sense of insecurity,” he noted. “People trust each other less, participate less in community life, and see others as competitors, including in access to benefits.”

Debate continues over whether the rise of the far right can be explained purely by economic factors. Even if public spending is increased, the challenges of the twenty-first century—climate change, the technological revolution, and especially artificial intelligence—are likely to transform social and political realities in profound ways.

Nevertheless, De Schutter insists that “we must change the way we talk about poverty and social support” and “stop blaming the poor for their situation.” He cites research showing that investment in the welfare state yields long-term benefits: supporting low-income families eventually leads to broader prosperity. “Social protection is not merely an expense—it is an investment,” he emphasized.