Europe Faces the Rise of Right-Wing and Populist Influence in the East

The European Union’s eastern flank is once again a source of tension—and Russia’s refusal to end its war against Ukraine is only part of the problem.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long regarded as the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, has sharpened his anti-European and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric ahead of parliamentary elections next spring. He accuses European leaders of preparing “war plans” against Moscow and has vowed to veto any attempt to accelerate Ukraine’s accession talks with the EU.

In neighboring Slovakia, the Party of European Socialists—the largest social-democratic group in Europe—has suspended, and is expected soon to expel, its local partner SMER. Its leader, Prime Minister Robert Fico, angered his European colleagues after attending Victory Day celebrations in Beijing and Moscow, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In the Czech Republic, another populist and Eurosceptic—Andrej Babiš, a former prime minister and critic of Ukraine—won Sunday’s parliamentary elections. The 71-year-old billionaire, who wore the Czech equivalent of a MAGA cap during his campaign, hopes to replace the pro-European government of conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

Babiš faces an ongoing fraud trial, and his party failed to win a majority. But if he succeeds in forming a coalition, Brussels expects him to join Orbán and Fico in efforts to block aid to Ukraine and resist new sanctions against Russia.

“This aligns with an unprecedented ideological convergence between the MAGA movement and the EU’s rebel states,” said Alberto Alemanno, professor of European law and policy at HEC Paris. According to him, recent developments could “further shift the EU’s political balance to the right if Babiš joins forces with Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico to challenge support for Ukraine and test the resilience of democratic institutions.”

Even in calm and reliably democratic Lithuania, mass protests erupted over the weekend: artists demanded the resignation of the culture minister from the populist Dawn of Nemanus party, whose leader has been accused of antisemitism. The party entered the government after Prime Minister Gintautas Palckas resigned over a corruption scandal this summer.

In the past, when turbulence hit the EU, attention turned to its main pillars—Germany and France. But today Germany is mired in economic slowdown, while France is engulfed in political and financial turmoil: on Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after less than a month in office. “It’s clear that the political crisis in France further complicates and delays the EU’s ability to act on its core challenges,” Alemanno said.

Babiš and his ANO (“Yes”) movement ran on the slogan “Czechia First.” He pledged to raise wages and pensions and to shut down the Czech program coordinating artillery shell deliveries to Ukraine, claiming the previous government “gives nothing to Czech mothers while giving everything to Ukrainians.”

According to Babiš, the issue is not weapons deliveries themselves but how they are organized: he alleges that the program is corrupt and benefits intermediaries, and demands that it be transferred under NATO’s control. His party won only a third of the vote and now must seek coalition partners—a difficult task, as most parties are reluctant to join forces with him.

According to Babiš, talks are already underway with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party, which calls for the deportation of Ukrainian migrants, and with the Drivers for Themselves movement, which opposes the EU’s Green Deal on emissions reduction. Both potential partners are strongly anti-European.

On the eve of the election, Czech President Petr Pavel said the country faced a choice—“to remain part of the West or drift toward the East.” After the vote, he warned Babiš that the new government must preserve “all the institutions of a democratic state” and maintain a “pro-European course.”

Tabea Schaumann, an analyst at the European Policy Centre, noted that Babiš’s return could add another leader to the European Council capable of paralyzing decision-making. In her view, much will depend on the makeup of the coalition, and while support for Ukraine is unlikely to cease altogether, it will likely be “reassessed.”

After the election, Babiš assured that Czechia would remain a reliable partner of the EU and NATO, while his ally Karel Havlíček told the BBC: “We criticize the European Union, but we don’t want to destroy it. We want to reform it.”

Babiš has boasted of meeting Donald Trump several times, and he maintains friendly ties with Orbán. On Monday, Orbán reiterated that Hungary should not adopt the euro, claiming that “the European Union is falling apart.” “The country should not bind its fate more closely to the EU, and adopting the euro would be the closest tie possible,” he told EconomX.

Since 2010, Orbán has advanced his vision of “illiberal Christian democracy,” curbing LGBTQ+ rights and interfering in the work of courts, media, and universities. This has already led to the freezing of €21 billion in EU funding for Hungary.

At last week’s EU leaders’ summit in Denmark, he rejected a proposal by European Council President António Costa to open accession talks with Ukraine: “I don’t agree. That means the plan is dead.”

Amid Emmanuel Macron’s weakened position and the limited influence of Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, European leaders are increasingly clashing in public. After Orbán accused EU officials of preparing “war plans” against Russia, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded on social media: “It was Russia that started the war against Ukraine. It’s Russia that decided we live in wartime. And in such times, there’s only one question—whose side are you on?”

Tusk faces challenges of his own: in June, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki—backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and by Donald Trump—won Poland’s presidential election. He campaigned under the slogan “Poland for Poles.”

Nawrocki demands that Germany pay reparations for Nazi crimes, vows to combat illegal migration, defend the złoty, and curb the influence of EU institutions. He is sharply critical of Russia—recently calling Putin a “war criminal”—but remains wary of Ukraine, arguing that it has no place in NATO or the European Union.

Orbán and Fico continue to buy Russian oil and gas, defying Trump’s demands to end those imports after his own failed attempts to secure a ceasefire from Putin. This raises doubts about whether the U.S. administration is prepared to exert additional pressure on the Kremlin.

“The goal of our country is not the defeat of the Russian Federation. Our goal is to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. It’s Slavs killing each other. War is not the answer,” Fico said during a televised debate on Sunday. He added, “If the EU put as much effort into peace as it does into supporting the war in Ukraine, it would have ended long ago.”