After eighteen rounds of sanctions, the European Union has reached the limits of its own leverage: the ban on Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products has left Brussels with fewer tools of pressure. The nineteenth package promises new measures against the “shadow fleet” and intermediary companies, but in Europe’s capitals there is growing recognition that the decisive word rests with Washington. Only the United States can impose secondary sanctions capable of inflicting the heaviest blow on Moscow.
The European Union is preparing a new package of measures aimed at choking Russia’s war economy. Yet after the decision to gradually phase out imports of oil and gas, Brussels is increasingly aware that it is Washington, not the EU, that holds the tools capable of doing the greatest damage to Moscow.
According to four European diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity, the next round of sanctions is unlikely to touch the energy sector, which remains the main source of financing for Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The nineteenth package, expected to be unveiled next month, will focus primarily on the “shadow fleet” and the companies helping Moscow circumvent existing restrictions.
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For Moscow, the greatest threat comes from so-called secondary sanctions—restrictions against companies or countries that continue to do business with Russia. But the real force of such measures would come above all from Washington.
Many analysts point to the episode with Alaska as illustrative: Vladimir Putin agreed to meet Donald Trump after the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil—a key source of Kremlin revenue. A logical and far more painful step would be to extend such sanctions to Russia’s trade with China.
Trump appears not to rule out such a move if peace talks collapse. "In the next two weeks it will become clear which way things will go. And I must be very satisfied," he said on Friday, threatening "massive sanctions or massive tariffs, or both" if Moscow fails to show flexibility.
The EU Has Exhausted Its Room for New Strikes Against Russian Oil
In June, EU countries approved a lower price cap on Russian oil, a ban on fuel refined from Russian crude, and blacklisted companies linked to the Nord Stream pipelines. Together with the plan for a complete phase-out of Russian energy imports, this leaves the bloc with fewer tools to increase pressure on Moscow.
"We do not expect the EU’s 19th sanctions package to have much room left for significant measures against Russian oil," says Ajay Parmar, chief oil market analyst at ICIS. "The previous package delivered a major blow to Russia’s oil sector, and now there is little scope for further steps."
According to Maria Shagina, a sanctions expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia’s economy may appear "superficially resilient," but in reality it is already buckling under pressure. "Falling oil prices, stagnation in the defense industry, a looming banking crisis, and ever-rising military spending are pushing the Russian economy toward recession. Sanctions against the shadow fleet are only one factor," she said.
A particular threat comes from U.S. secondary sanctions against companies doing business with Russian firms. "They would sharply exacerbate the economy’s existing problems. Yet the Kremlin does not take the Trump administration’s threats seriously and believes it can weather the storm for now," Shagina added.
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In Brussels, other measures are being discussed that could weaken Moscow’s position, including restricting the freedom of movement of Russian diplomats within the Schengen area. Supporters of the initiative argue that full mobility makes it harder to monitor intelligence operatives who can plan operations far from the country that issued their visa.
"Just as Cato the Elder kept repeating that Carthage must be destroyed, I will continue to call for an end to free movement for Russian diplomats in Schengen," said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský. "It is an unnecessary advantage we are giving the Russian regime, and it is being used to organize sabotage."
EU foreign ministers will gather for an informal meeting later this week. On the agenda is a discussion with the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas on how to tighten economic pressure on Russia.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is taking its own steps by striking oil refineries deep inside Russian territory, undermining the Kremlin’s main source of revenue. Over the weekend, drones hit a pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline, halting oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia—EU countries traditionally close to Moscow. Budapest and Bratislava have already sent letters to the European Commission demanding intervention to prevent similar attacks in the future.
Brussels, however, has made clear it has no intention of supporting such demands. "What matters is that the suspension did not affect supply security, and that has always been the Commission’s priority," said Commission spokeswoman Eva Hrnčířová.
Even though Hungary and Slovakia have consistently opposed tougher sanctions and resisted plans to fully phase out Russian energy, diplomats are confident they can be brought to support the nineteenth package unanimously. "Just look at what happened the previous 18 times," said one European official.