The European Union has long considered itself food self-sufficient. But a new report by consulting firm Foresight Transitions challenges that assumption, revealing that much of the EU’s imports of cocoa, wheat, and corn come from countries ill-equipped to handle climate risks and suffering from environmental degradation.
As extreme weather events become more frequent and natural ecosystems weaken, Europe’s food dependence on unstable regions is no longer just a sustainability concern—it is a warning sign of a looming crisis.
Climate risks and biodiversity loss are compounding what the report calls a "chocolate crisis" in the EU, noting that cocoa is one of six key imported commodities that predominantly come from countries vulnerable to environmental threats.
According to analysis by the UK-based consulting firm Foresight Transitions, over two-thirds of the EU’s imports of cocoa, coffee, soy, rice, wheat, and corn in 2023 came from nations poorly prepared for the impacts of climate change.
In addition, for three of those crops—cocoa, wheat, and corn—two-thirds of the imports originated in countries where biodiversity is already considered non-resilient by the report’s authors.
A cocoa grove covered in fallen leaves after a drought.
Researchers note that climate shocks reduce crop yields, while declining biodiversity amplifies this effect, making agriculture less capable of adapting to external stresses.
"These are not abstract threats," says Camilla Hyslop, lead author of the report. "They are already materializing and negatively affecting business, employment, food availability, and prices. And the situation is continuing to deteriorate."
In their study, experts cross-referenced Eurostat trade data with two international environmental resilience indices to assess the vulnerability of supply chains for three staple food crops and three key commodity crops that play a critical role in the EU’s food system.
To evaluate climate risk, they used the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, which considers both a country’s exposure to climate disruptions and its financial and institutional capacity to adapt.
For biodiversity health, researchers relied on data from the UK’s Natural History Museum, which measures how much current wildlife diversity in a given country deviates from its pre-industrial baseline.
The conclusion is troubling: the bulk of imports come from countries with low or medium climate resilience and moderately degraded biodiversity.
Some food products were found to be particularly vulnerable. According to the report, 90% of corn imported into the EU comes from countries with low or medium levels of climate preparedness, and 67% originates from regions with insufficient biodiversity protection.
The situation is even more acute for cocoa, which is not grown in Europe: 96.5% of EU imports come from countries poorly equipped to deal with climate challenges, and 77% from areas facing worsening environmental conditions.
Cocoa sacks being loaded at a port in Ghana.
The industry is already under significant pressure: a surge in sugar prices—partly driven by extreme weather—has combined with cocoa supply disruptions. Most of the raw cocoa comes from West African countries where climate and environmental risks intersect.
The authors of the report, commissioned by the European Climate Foundation, are urging the world’s largest chocolate producers to invest in climate adaptation and biodiversity protection in cocoa-exporting countries.
"This is not about philanthropy or ESG checklists," they note. "It’s a necessary step to reduce risks to global supply chains. Ensuring fair prices for farmers will enable them to invest in the resilience of their own operations."
Paul Behrens, an Oxford-based researcher and author of a textbook on food systems and sustainability, who was not involved in the report, called its findings "deeply concerning" in terms of food system resilience.
"Policymakers like to believe the EU is food self-sufficient because it produces a large share of its own food," he noted. "But this report shows the European Union is vulnerable to climate and ecological risks in several critical supply chains."
While overall risk levels were lower for coffee, rice, and soy, the study highlights specific areas of concern. Uganda, for example, which accounted for 10% of the EU’s coffee imports in 2023, received low or medium scores on both climate readiness and biodiversity health.
Joseph Nkandu, founder of the National Union of Coffee Agribusinesses and Farm Enterprises in Uganda, called for expanded access to international climate finance for farmers.
"The weather in Uganda is no longer predictable," he said. "Heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and erratic rainfall are destroying our coffee plantations and undermining harvests."
Marco Springmann, another Oxford-based expert on food systems not involved in the study, emphasized the need to shift toward healthier and more sustainable diets if the world hopes to withstand climate shocks.
"About a third of all grains and nearly all imported soy are used for animal feed," he noted. "Efforts to make these supply chains more resilient ignore the core issue: they are largely driving the very risks we’re trying to guard against."