The European Commission Recognizes Significant Progress by Ukraine on Its Path to EU Membership

The European Commission has presented its annual enlargement package, noting significant progress by Ukraine but stressing that further movement will depend on accelerating key reforms—above all in the rule of law. The report says Kyiv has met the conditions to open three negotiating clusters—“fundamentals,” “external relations,” and “internal market.” The Commission expects the remaining requirements to be fulfilled and is “working to put the Council in a position” to open all clusters by the end of the year. If the current reform pace holds, negotiations could be provisionally concluded by the end of 2028.

EU enlargement is described as a “realistic possibility” for the 2028–2034 budget cycle, though Brussels emphasizes that the process will remain strict. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called enlargement an “obvious geopolitical necessity” but insisted the process will be merit-based, without exceptions or shortcuts.

The main test remains anti-corruption reform. This summer, the EU reacted sharply to attempts to curtail the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. After criticism and protests in Kyiv, the government adjusted course. Brussels continues to monitor the situation closely and directly links the pace of talks to the existence of strong guarantees for the independence of anti-corruption institutions. For the EU, corruption is a red line: any interference with NABU, SAP, or other bodies will be seen as backsliding and a threat to the membership negotiations.

On November 4, Volodymyr Zelensky urged that accession talks be accelerated, saying Ukraine should become an EU member by 2030. He defended the pace of reforms, emphasizing Kyiv’s readiness to open new negotiating clusters but acknowledged that the timeline largely depends on decisions within the Union itself. His remarks included a clear hint toward Hungary’s position, which continues to block consensus among member states.

Brussels’ current strategy is for the EU Council to open all clusters with Ukraine by year’s end. Between 2026 and 2028, negotiations could move into a more intensive phase and be conditionally concluded if Kyiv maintains steady progress on “fundamentals.” Yet political barriers within the Union persist and could slow the process regardless of Ukraine’s technical readiness.