Babis Returns to Power in the Czech Republic

Andrej Babiš and his ANO movement won a convincing victory in the pivotal Czech parliamentary elections, according to preliminary results released on Saturday. Observers say the outcome could turn the country into a new challenge for the European Union.

As of Saturday evening, with more than 98 percent of ballots counted, ANO had secured around 35 percent of the vote—well ahead of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s ruling coalition Spolu (“Together”), which stood at about 23 percent.

“I am satisfied,” Babiš told reporters at party headquarters, greeted by loud applause from supporters as the old Italian pop song “Ricchi e Poveri” played in the background.

The State Election Commission, which collects data from more than 14,800 polling stations in the Czech Republic and abroad, is expected—based on past experience—to confirm the final results by Monday, although the introduction of postal voting could cause delays. A total of 26 parties and 4,462 candidates competed for seats in parliament. Turnout reached 68 percent, the highest level since 1998.

The STAN party (“Mayors and Independents”), part of the ruling coalition, came in third with 11 percent of the vote. It was followed by the far-right, Euroskeptic Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party and the Pirate Party—both receiving about 8 percent. Support for SPD fell significantly compared with earlier polls, which had put it as high as 13 percent.

The surprise of the election was the entry of the right-wing populist party “Motorists for Themselves” into parliament. Despite hovering around the 5 percent threshold in pre-election polls, it ended up securing roughly 7 percent of the vote. The left-wing radical movement Stačilo! (“Enough!”), by contrast, is likely to remain below the threshold.

Across Europe, observers followed the Czech elections with concern. Babiš has repeatedly pledged to end his country’s participation in the European initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine, challenge NATO’s plans to raise defense spending, and contest the European Commission’s Green Deal policies.

Andrej Babiš’s likely allies could include the “Motorists for Themselves” party—which shares his position on keeping the Czech Republic in the EU and NATO—and the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, which does not. The prospect of such an alliance has raised alarm among analysts and political opponents alike. Both ANO and the Motorists are part of the pan-European group Patriots for Europe, founded by Babiš himself.

On Saturday evening, Babiš announced his intention to form a single-party minority government with the support of SPD and Motorists for Themselves. “We will negotiate with SPD and the Motorists and aim to establish a one-party government led by the ANO movement,” he said.

This configuration is precisely what worries Otto Eibl, a political scientist at Masaryk University in Brno. “I don’t think an Andrej Babiš government, even a minority one, would necessarily resemble what we see in Slovakia under Fico or in Hungary under Orbán,” Eibl said. “The real problems could begin if a coalition—or even a minority government—emerges that relies on the communists, SPD, or other parties bound together in unnatural alliances.”

Babiš, a billionaire and owner of the agricultural conglomerate Agrofert, previously served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021. In 2023, he ran for president but lost to General Petr Pavel.

In Brussels, his name is primarily associated with a long-running investigation: Babiš is suspected of defrauding EU funds worth about 2 million euros—money intended for medium-sized businesses that was allegedly used to benefit Agrofert.

The case is once again before the Prague District Court. After the High Court overturned his acquittal in June, the lower court must reexamine the case along the same lines unless new evidence emerges. Babiš denies all accusations, calling them politically motivated. Still, the trial could complicate his return to the prime minister’s office if the president decides not to entrust government formation to a politician under investigation for a conflict of interest. Such a scenario remains unlikely, but not impossible.

President Petr Pavel announced that he would meet with all parties that entered parliament on Sunday.