Australia Faces Catastrophic Consequences of Climate Change

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the newly released climate risk report for the country “a troubling warning” and stressed the need for “serious” measures in tackling global warming.

He noted that the findings of the national climate risk assessment will form the basis for the government’s 2035 emissions reduction target. At the same time, he said it is essential to ensure an “orderly” energy transition in order to maintain public support for climate policy.

On Monday, the authorities presented the long-awaited climate risk assessment—the most detailed analysis to date of the social and economic consequences of the crisis for Australia. Prepared by the Australian Climate Service, the report examines the impact of extreme events—heatwaves, droughts, and floods—on different areas of society, the economy, and ecosystems. The analysis covers three global warming scenarios: above 1.5°C, above 2°C, and above 3°C.

The report notes that temperatures in Australia have already risen by 1.5°C. According to the projections, under a 3°C warming scenario, heat-related deaths would rise by 444% in Sydney and by 423% in Darwin.

The report highlights the growing risks to Australia’s densely populated coastal areas from rising sea levels: flooding, erosion, and inundation. It estimates that by 2050 some 1.5 million coastal residents will be at risk, rising to more than 3 million by 2090.

The economic toll was also calculated: by mid-century, direct losses from floods, wildfires, storms, and cyclones nationwide could reach 40 billion dollars annually—even under the scenario where warming is limited to 1.5°C.

Climate Minister Chris Bowen called the findings “shocking,” adding: “It is important not to sugarcoat the situation or downplay its scale. We must be honest with Australians.” The delay in releasing the document prompted suspicions that the government intentionally held it back, given that sources familiar with its contents had described it as “intense and frightening.”

Environmental groups, climate scientists, civil society organizations, and the Greens immediately seized on the report, arguing it confirms the need to set a 2035 emissions reduction target above 75%. The cabinet is expected to decide this week: last Friday Bowen received recommendations from the Climate Council, which proposed a range of 65% to 75%. That threshold has become the focus of intense political battle and lobbying from both business and environmental groups.

Bowen himself noted that the new target “will by definition be contentious”: some will see it as excessive, others as insufficient. He expressed confidence that the cabinet would agree on an option that balances ambition with feasibility. “There is not a single Australian community that will not face the consequences of climate change, nor a single resident for whom those consequences will not be tangible and real,” he said. According to him, amid political debates over the cost of climate measures, the report makes clear that the price of inaction will always exceed the price of action.

Speaking in Papua New Guinea, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the report “a troubling warning to all those who continue to deny climate science,” hinting that members of the federal opposition remain among them. Asked whether the findings would shape the 2035 target, he replied: “Of course.”

“We must act on the basis of climate science. And we must do so in a consistent and orderly way. Public support will vanish if people come home, flick the switch—and the lights don’t turn on,” Albanese said.

The opposition, in turn, warned against “alarmist rhetoric,” stressing that Australia has every means to deal with the challenges of climate change. “What matters now is instilling confidence in Australians,” opposition leader Sussan Ley and shadow energy minister Ted O’Brien said in a joint statement.

The debate over Australia’s 2035 climate target comes amid signs that the global drive toward carbon neutrality is losing momentum: Donald Trump has pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, while countries such as Canada and New Zealand are lowering their own commitments.

Chris Bowen acknowledged the existence of “serious global headwinds” to the energy transition but stressed that Australia and the international community must keep moving forward. “Climate action and its various elements will go through phases of popularity. But the science will not change, the economics will not change, and this government’s commitment will not change,” he said.

The Albanese government’s resolve was called into question only days earlier, when it approved the extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project until 2070. Environmentalists branded it a “carbon bomb.” Bowen countered that fossil fuels play a role in the transition and insisted: “The seriousness of the government’s commitment to climate policy cannot be understated.”

The response from environmental groups was sharp. Climate Council chief executive Amanda McKenzie described the report’s findings as “terrifying,” while Paul Sinclair, acting head of the Australian Conservation Foundation, said they should serve as a “wake-up call for the Albanese government.” Greens leader Larissa Waters called the results “chilling.”

“This report shows that a 65% target for 2035 would mean significant human suffering and strain on the healthcare system, harsher heat, destructive floods, crop failures, fires, greater global instability, and the death of all coral reefs worldwide,” she stressed. “If Labor fails to set a science-based climate target, it will mean only one thing: they have placed the interests of the coal and gas industry entirely above the safety of society and the preservation of nature.”

The issues raised in the report will be the subject of parliamentary hearings on Tuesday. The push for an inquiry was driven by frustration among the Greens and independent MPs over repeated delays in releasing the risk assessment.